This market is a "lame duck" test. It tracks whether Donald Trump still possesses the political clout to remove Republicans who oppose him.
Fear of the President evaporates in the lame duck period. This market identifies whether that period has arrived early by tracking which incumbents can defy the President's wishes and keep their jobs.
To Participate:
Add an Answer: If Trump endorses a Challenger against a sitting GOP Incumbent (House/Senate/Governor), add the Incumbent's Name as a new option and a sentence or two on why they are a target.
Bet YES: You believe the Incumbent will WIN their primary (Trump fails to remove them).
Bet NO: You believe the Incumbent will LOSE their primary (Trump successfully removes them).
Rules:
1. Definition of "Targeted": An incumbent counts as "Targeted" if Donald Trump explicitly endorses a primary challenger against them. The endorsement must occur at least 30 days prior to the primary election date. ("Midnight" endorsements do not count).
2. The "Sticky" Rule (The Mo Brooks Clause): Once an incumbent is targeted, they stay in this market. If Trump later rescinds the endorsement of the challenger because they are losing, the Incumbent still counts as a test case. (reason: Trump has a habit of abandoning "losers").
3. The "Scarecrow" Rule: If the Trump-endorsed challenger drops out of the race and is not replaced by another Trump-endorsed candidate before the ballot deadline, the Incumbent resolves YES (Survivor).
4. Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES: Incumbent wins their primary nomination.
Resolves NO: The Incumbent loses the primary to a Trump-backed challenger.
Resolves N/A: Incumbent retires or drops out before the primary vote.
Update 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Field" Option: The "Field" option is a catch-all for any incumbent not currently listed as a separate answer option. When a new targeted incumbent is added as a specific answer option, that incumbent is no longer covered by the "Field" option.
1,000People are also trading
Trump endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein on Jan 21, 2026, specifically citing Massie’s vote against the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."
https://apnews.com/article/trump-massie-gallrein-congressional-campaign-3926a623a521302d7b33eac5ddf61a4a
33 days till Cornyn's Texas primary, and he's currently a coin toss to win.
If it goes to a run off, he's got the biggest war chest and incumbency in his favour.
Cornyn's Primary Date is March 3, 2026. The 30-day "Midnight Rule" cutoff was February 1. Trump remained neutral through the deadline. Even if he endorses in a potential runoff, Cornyn survived the primary targeting window.
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/laws/advisory2025-17-mar-3-2026-primary-elec-law-cal-and-may-26-2026-primary-runoff-elec-law-cal.shtml
@Lobstertronic How is that going to resolve? It says resolves yes if incumbent wins primary nomination. Cornyn is very unlikely to win
@Lobstertronic Resolution Criteria:
Resolves YES: Incumbent wins their primary nomination.
Resolves NO: The Incumbent loses the primary to a Trump-backed challenger.
Resolves N/A: Incumbent retires or drops out before the primary vote.
There is no criteria for what happens if the incumbent loses the primary to a non trump backed challenger.
@Jack1 yep good point, I missed that case (dammit!).
Working through this - the market is a test of Trump clout. Because of Rule #1 (The Midnight Rule), we're past the window where a Cornyn loss can count as a "Trump Snuffing."
So I think the fairest approach is:
SCENARIO A: Cornyn wins or makes the runoff. This resolves YES. (Rationale: Deterrence Win. The incumbent successfully held off a presidential intervention through the 30-day window).
SCENARIO B: Cornyn loses to Paxton/Hunt. This resolves N/A. (Rationale: Invalid Test. Since Trump remained neutral through the Feb 1 deadline, a loss doesn't prove Trump’s clout "snuffed" him - it’s just a standard electoral loss).
WHY NO IS IMPOSSIBLE: Per Rule #4, a NO resolution requires the incumbent to lose to a "Trump-backed challenger." Since no one was endorsed by the Feb 1 cutoff, that condition can no longer be met.
I’ll keep this open until March 4 to see if we hit Scenario A or B. Just wanted to flag this so you have the chance to adjust your position if you were betting on a Trump-driven purge.
Realistically I think a Cornyn win is unlikely - I pushed the Yes up without reviewing the rules first!
@Lobstertronic I don’t think Cornyn making the runoff resolving yes is fair. That is not a win.
Market should only resolve yes if Cornyn wins the primary nomination as per the resolves yes criteria. Making a runoff is not satisfying the yes criteria.
@Jack1 Good point, "Incumbent wins their primary nomination" is the criteria. Not the runoff.
I like creating these markets, but the admin is a PITA!
Julia Letlow endorsed to unseat Bill Cassidy
Primary Date: May 16, 2026 (Louisiana’s first Closed Party Primary in over a decade).
The Cutoff: April 16, 2026 (30 days prior to primary).
The Trigger: On January 17, 2026, Donald Trump issued a "Complete and Total Endorsement" for Rep. Julia Letlow on Truth Social, explicitly calling for her to run with the command: "RUN, JULIA, RUN!!!"
The Rationale: This is a direct revenge target for Cassidy’s 2021 vote to convict Trump. Senate Majority Leader John Thune reportedly tried to talk Trump out of the endorsement the day before it was issued, arguing that targeting Cassidy would jeopardize the 2026 legislative agenda.
Hi @UnconditionalProbability, "Field" is a catch all for any option not currently listed. So adding an option would then remove that option from the "Field".
@Jack1 fair point. The flip side is that while Susan Collins (R) vs Janet Mills (D) is a dead heat, Trump seems to rate loyalty above nearly all else. He may write her off as collateral damage.
@Lobstertronic he just truthed that she should never be elected again. He’s dumber than I thought