This market is a "lame duck" test. It tracks whether Donald Trump still possesses the political clout to remove Republicans who oppose him.

Fear of the President evaporates in the lame duck period. This market identifies whether that period has arrived early by tracking which incumbents can defy the President's wishes and keep their jobs.

To Participate:

• Add an Answer: If Trump endorses a Challenger against a sitting GOP Incumbent (House/Senate/Governor), add the Incumbent's Name as a new option and a sentence or two on why they are a target.

• Bet YES: You believe the Incumbent will WIN their primary (Trump fails to remove them).

• Bet NO: You believe the Incumbent will LOSE their primary (Trump successfully removes them).

Rules:

1. Definition of "Targeted": An incumbent counts as "Targeted" if Donald Trump explicitly endorses a primary challenger against them. The endorsement must occur at least 30 days prior to the primary election date. ("Midnight" endorsements do not count).

2. The "Sticky" Rule (The Mo Brooks Clause): Once an incumbent is targeted, they stay in this market. If Trump later rescinds the endorsement of the challenger because they are losing, the Incumbent still counts as a test case. (reason: Trump has a habit of abandoning "losers").

3. The "Scarecrow" Rule: If the Trump-endorsed challenger drops out of the race and is not replaced by another Trump-endorsed candidate before the ballot deadline, the Incumbent resolves YES (Survivor).

4. Resolution Criteria:

• Resolves YES: Incumbent wins their primary nomination.

• Resolves NO: The Incumbent loses the primary to a Trump-backed challenger.

• Resolves N/A: Incumbent retires or drops out before the primary vote.

• Update 2026-01-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Field" Option: The "Field" option is a catch-all for any incumbent not currently listed as a separate answer option. When a new targeted incumbent is added as a specific answer option, that incumbent is no longer covered by the "Field" option.