Presumably you mean "direct-to-cell" services (i.e. everything you can use exclusively with a regular smartphone, whatever that will mean in 2030), and something like Verizon reselling a branded version of Starlink or Viasat wouldn't count?

Hmmm. StarLink does considerably better than that, but their constellation is fairly expensive. I'm assuming you picked that benchmark because you think Verizon might try for a sat-phone model, or at least to have such a network available as a fallback from maintaining expensive infrastructure in less populated areas?

@AndrewHartman Mostly I picked that because T-Mobile is doing an SMS-only version of this. Basic internet feels like the logical next step