Note: this is a duplicate of @ScottAlexander's aiming to find the expected value. It will resolve identically, except with the number matching the title.

Original:

This market resolves positive if a major-party candidate for US Congress in the 2022 midterm elections contests the results of the election they were in, including:

• Calling for, sponsoring, or promoting (eg tweeting positively about) a protest against the election result.

• Refusing to formally concede for more than three days after a major paper has called the election for their opponent (and without any other major paper agreeing that the race is too close to call), on the grounds that they believe they won.

• Launching unusual legal or political action (eg a lawsuit) to overturn the results of the election that they were in. A normal recount in a close race isn't "unusual"; I will use my judgment (and past history) to decide what qualifies.

• Anything else that common-sensically fits a definition of contesting an election result.

If a candidate says they believe the election was fraudulent, but concedes on time and doesn't make any attempt to fight it, that will not count as contesting the election results for purpose of this market. If a candidate's supporters take some action, but the candidate doesn't positively endorse it, that won't count as a positive resolution.

This market resolves negative if nobody has met any of these criteria by December 1 or three days after the mainstream media calls the results of the last race, whichever happens later.

Close date updated to 2022-11-09 3:59 pm

UPDATE: Added the words "major-party". If you feel like this unfairly affected your investment, please contact me and I will try to reimburse you. Sorry!