Where will the next magnitude ≥7 earthquake be?
8
800Ṁ343
resolved Sep 11
58%52%
6.224°S 146.471°E
27%10%
Lae, Papua New Guinea
10%10%
Papua New Guinea
5%4%
Pacific Plate
5%Other
5%
Pacific Ocean
0.1%
Cocos-North American Border
1.4%
Pacific-North American Border
0.1%
United States
5%
Indonesia
0.9%
Japan
0.1%
Aleutian Islands
0.1%
Mexico
0.1%
Caribbean Sea
0.2%
Fiji
0.1%
Los Angeles
0.1%
Fukushima
0.1%
Italy
1.4%
Alaska
1.7%
Nazca Plate

Resolves according to the Wikipedia article List of Earthquakes in [year] (1, 2).

If a location is within 250km of the epicenter as projected to the surface according to (3), it will be accepted at weight inverse to its distance squared.

You can also submit answers which are oceans, seas, island chains, countries, tectonic plates, or groups of faults. Each of these categories will be chosen independently. If any are not paid out, this will roll over into the cities and locations category.

See the attached chart for more information.

(1) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2022

(2) - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2023

(3) - https://www.mapdevelopers.com/distance_from_to.php

Previous edition: https://manifold.markets/LivInTheLookingGlass/where-will-the-next-magnitude-7-ear

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