Where will the next magnitude ≥7 earthquake be?
4
59
resolved Jul 27
90%93%
17.598°N 120.809°E
10%0.3%
Eurasian-Phillipine Border
0.2%
Pacific Ocean
0.2%
Los Angeles
0.2%
Indian Ocean
0.2%
Fukushima, Japan
0.2%
Juan de Fuca-Pacific border
0.2%
Pacific-North American Border
0.2%
Pacific-Cocos Border
0.2%
Pacific-Nazca Border
1.1%
ANTE
0.2%
Cocos-North American Border
0.2%
Pacific-Phillipine Border
0.2%
Sea of Japan
0.2%
Japan
0.2%
New Zealand
0.2%
Aleutian Islands
0.2%
Mexico
0.2%
United States
0.0%
Vigan City, Ilocos Sur, Philippines

Resolves according to the Wikipedia article [List of Earthquakes in [year]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2022).

If a location is within 250km of the epicenter as projected to the surface according to [this](https://www.mapdevelopers.com/distance_from_to.php), it will be accepted at weight inverse to its distance squared. If a location is a fault line family, it will be accepted at a weight of 10% after this. For oceans & seas, likewise, except at 5%.

Example:

  • Fukushima (selected at 1/99² weight of T)

  • Miyagi (selected at 1/91² weight of T)

  • Los Angeles (not selected)

  • Japan Trench (selected at 10%)

  • Sea of Japan (not selected)

  • Pacific Ocean (selected at 5%)

  • T = sum(1/distance² for distance in selected) × (1 - 0.1 × faults - 0.05 × seas)

    Jul 25, 12:21am: If no location is matched of any type, market continues unresolved. If no specific location is within 250km, all reward will go to faults & seas

    Jul 25, 12:29am: Countries or island chains will be selected as the same weight as seas

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ107
2Ṁ6
Sort by:
What do you think? Was this a good market? Should I run it again?
I definitely think I can simplify how I divide the pie by using a table or image
For transparencies sake, this market after all payouts, tips, bonuses, etc. cost M$68
Which plate map are you using?