AMPLIFIED ODDS 100x: Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in the next 2 weeks?
21
25
160
resolved Oct 21
Resolved
N/A

This rule resolves YES if the referenced market resolves YES.

If the referenced market resolves NO, I will get a random number using a predetermined seed. If it is less than 1 / a, I will resolve NO. Otherwise, I will resolve N/A. This means that, for this rule, you should treat NO as if it is a times less likely to happen than it actually is.

For example, if a = 100, and your actual expected outcome is 0.01% YES, 99.99% NO, you should expect this to resolve with probabilities 0.01% YES, 0.9999% NO, 98.9901% N/A, which means that your price of a YES share should be ~1% (actually 0.99%).

Some other values, for calibration (using the formula YES' = YES/(YES + (1-YES)/100), where YES' is the price for this question, and YES is your actual probability):

0.02% YES => ~2% YES' (actually 1.96%)

0.05% YES => ~5% YES' (actually 4.76%)

0.1% YES => 9% YES'

0.2% YES => 17% YES'

0.5% YES => 33% YES'

1% YES => 50% YES'

2% YES => 67% YES'

5% YES => 84% YES'

10% YES => 92% YES'

20% YES => 96% YES'

50% YES => 99% YES'

100% YES => 100% YES'

This market will resolve if any of the following are true:

- If this market reaches its close date

- If `jsqfBFbbIyP4X40L6VSo` closes (Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in the next 2 weeks?).

It will resolve based on the following decision tree:

- If the human operator agrees:

--- Amplified odds:

----- If the referenced market resolves YES, resolve YES

------- Resolved (or current, if not resolved) value of `jsqfBFbbIyP4X40L6VSo` (Will a nuclear weapon be launched in combat in the next 2 weeks?).

----- If it resolved NO, generate a random number using a predetermined seed

------- If the number is less than `1 / a` (100 -> ~0.01), resolve NO

------- Otherwise, resolve N/A

----- Otherwise, resolve to the equivalent price of the reference market

- Otherwise, a manually provided value

Note that the bot operator reserves the right to resolve contrary to the purely automated rules to preserve the spirit of the market. All resolutions are first verified by the human operator.

The operator also reserves the right to trade on this market unless otherwise specified. Even if otherwise specified, the operator reserves the right to buy shares for subsidy or to trade for the purposes of cashing out liquidity.

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If you'd like to check my work, feel free to run my integration test src/test/examples/test_amplified_odds.py::test_AmplifiedOddsMarket[amplified-odds-100x-will-a-nuclear-4acd2868830b]

I do see that this is closed, but I want to use this market as a test case for future amplified markets. I will resolve within 24h of the underlying market resolving. In the future this will be automated.

@LivInTheLookingGlass The underlying market has resolved.

Oh hey, another one of these for me to lose money on.

Hmm, there isn't actually a clickable link to the market: https://manifold.markets/FRCassarino/will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-launched-i-58f3ef71a9d5

@jack Yeah, automating formatting is on the list of tasks, but it's lower down because TipTap is somewhat fiddly

@LivInTheLookingGlass probably the best route would be markdown -> html -> tiptap