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MANIFOLD
A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in CO-8 (Susan Wild vs Lisa Scheller)
11
Ṁ230Ṁ900
resolved Nov 13
Resolved
YES

This race is currently a tossup on NYT, with an estimate of R+1.5 at time of creation. Part of a series of markets.

Close date updated to 2022-11-10 6:59 am

Close date updated to 2022-11-12 6:59 am

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US 2022 Elections
US 2022 Midterms
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predictedYES

This market is resolving because of the following trigger(s): If this market reaches its close date (-> YES)

It will follow the decision tree below:

  • If the human operator agrees:

    • Resolved (or current, if not resolved) value of N/A (A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in CO-8 (Susan Wild vs Lisa Scheller)) (-> 1%)

Final Value: YES

@LivInTheLookingGlass 538 is telling me that Wild and Scheller are in the Penn.-8 District.

predictedYES

ABC has called this, but I don't understand how. The vote difference is ~100 votes, and there are 10% of votes outstanding. I am going to push this market another couple days just in case

@LivInTheLookingGlass Will this market resolve if Fox or The AP calls CO-8 for the Democrats as well?

Isn't CO-8 Caraveo vs Kirkmeyer: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-colorado-us-house-district-8.html

A Democrat wins the 2022 race for House in CO-8 (Susan Wild vs Lisa Scheller), 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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