What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th? [ADD YOUR OWN]
102
1k
5k
Jul 5
38%
Taylor Swift
29%
Joe Biden tripping over
61%
LGBT
19%
Manifold
11%
Sam Altman
10%
Jimmy Carter
67%
Donald Trump's trial(s)
4%
Soup
77%
The US-TikTok ban
4%
Melinda Gates
11%
Emmanuel Macron
16%
Truth Social
69%
Chat GPT
9%
Literally "spice"
44%
Independece Day Firework
25%
Birth Control (definition: preventing pregnancy)
40%
Literally “69”
26%
Some reference to his birthday being 69 days after 4/20
12%
Grimes
74%
Any cryptocurrency

Whatever Musk tweets or reposts, including reposts (the content directly visible in the repost and pictures (videos, podcasts, etc. are excluded) without opening a thread) after market creation/adding the submission, counts. Whatever is visible under "Posts" on his page, even if deleted later, also counts. Replies, etc., do not count.

  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason, especially low value answers (i.e. "Tesla" or "United States") according to my judgement. Please ask beforehand. [payments for submissions won't be returned]

  • Literally submissions will only be based on what Musk directly types on X in his own posts and in the text above reposts. This does not include what other people write or what he uses in replies. Furthermore, it does not include what he says in a video or what is visible in a picture or meme, even if these contain words.

Resolution criteria

  • I'll be fairly relaxed, but it should be clear and obvious. I.e. if he tweets "the president does[...]," Joe Biden would resolve to yes. However, "Obamacare" won't resolve "Obama." "Transgender" isn't enough to resolve "LGBT," but "LGBTQIA+" and "transgender, [...] homosexuals and bisexuals" would resolve "LGBT." If the submission requires an international context, the submission won't resolve if Musk only mentions a single country. If you need more examples, please feel free to ask.

  • I'll use my own judgment and might seek input from mods in unclear cases or decide to N/A.

  • I won't bet in this market except if Microsoft pushes certain answers in the ranking.

  • The question closes on July 4th at 0:00 PT. Any submissions without proof by July 5th at 0:00 PST will be resolved as NO.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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Only original posts and reposts are considered for this question. Replies do not count.

Quick links:

Any cryptocurrency

@ChristopherRandles replies don't count.

bought Ṁ20 Any cryptocurrency YES

@shankypanky Ah right. However it appears in posts for me not just in with replies,

@ChristopherRandles it always appears in this format when you reply to your own tweet

@ChristopherRandles I didn't add it because it's a bit obscure - based on his past judgment calls and political leanings I assumed he was referring to "Dem/Liberal" philosophy? it's up to @Lion but I don't think it's a comment directly on AI safety

@ChristopherRandles I'm with @shankypanky here. This aligns more with the dangers of a 1984 dystopia than directly with AI safety itself, which I assume isn't the thought/intention of the submission.

RIP Kabosu😭 https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1794022138757648810

@shankypanky That was a short fuse 💣

bought Ṁ1,500 Answer #dfe86c906f7a YES

@shankypanky Added his last name for clarification. Hope it's okay.

@Lion for sure - I added it in haste while I was half attentive just for the sake of getting something in, in case a tweet came 😂 thanks for updating 🍲

https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1789049294160621882

Please resolve yes for censorship!

@AGG I added this one below under the censorship option and tagged Lion. I'm sure he'll get to it (he's in Europe and it's late there).

@AGG Thanks

Soup

please Elon, have the soup at IHOP and tell us about it 🍲
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1787914668570550511

I am NOT inclined to resolve according to both posts.

@shankypanky It's about hate speech and retroactively arresting offenders. It might involve freedom of speech, but even that is an edge case to me. It doesn't clearly touch on the topic of censorship. The reposted tweet or Elon's text doesn't make any comments about how censoring hate speech is bad or something similar.

@ChristopherRandles Being politically correct isn't censorship, particularly in this case where it's voluntary

@ChristopherRandles It's about a fine and a court decision about an individual statement/person. Not obvious.

bought Ṁ579 Answer #9d608dc0a335 YES

@shankypanky Does that also do 'Tik tok ban'? wrong way around I guess.

@ChristopherRandles I'm not sure, Lion can decide because it's his market. I would guess not, as it's not a ban - just some select users/accounts requested for deletion. the tik tok ban these days refers to banning the app (like there has been discussion about doing in the US). but it's up to Lion of course! he'll get to it this weekend I'm sure.

@shankypanky It also mentions Turkey part of which is in the Balkans but I probably wouldn't say Turkey is a Balkan ***Country***

@ChristopherRandles I don't understand your point?
the option is "any Balkan country" and Turkey, as we agree and general parlance agree, isn't one of them...

@ChristopherRandles As @shankypanky mentions, this isn't about the TikTok ban, this is about censorship in different countries. I'll add US to TikTok ban to make it a little bit more obvoius/clear.

I'll add a list of countries that I'll consider as Balkan countries. Turkey isn't one of them.

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