What topics or who will Elon Musk tweet about on X before July 4th?
133
6.6kṀ46k
resolved Jul 5
Resolved
NO
Taylor Swift
Resolved
NO
Joe Biden tripping over
Resolved
NO
LGBT
Resolved
YES
Tucker Carlson
Resolved
NO
Manifold
Resolved
NO
Sam Altman
Resolved
NO
Jimmy Carter
Resolved
YES
Donald Trump's trial(s)
Resolved
YES
Roman Empire
Resolved
YES
Abortion
Resolved
YES
Lex Fridman
Resolved
NO
Soup
Resolved
NO
The US-TikTok ban
Resolved
NO
Melinda Gates
Resolved
YES
Benjamin Netanyahu
Resolved
NO
Emmanuel Macron
Resolved
NO
Truth Social
Resolved
NO
Chat GPT
Resolved
NO
Literally "spice"
Resolved
N/A
Proactively advocating for more legal immigration

Whatever Musk tweets or reposts, including reposts (the content directly visible in the repost and pictures (videos, podcasts, etc. are excluded) without opening a thread) after market creation/adding the submission, counts. Whatever is visible under "Posts" on his page, even if deleted later, also counts. Replies, etc., do not count.

  • I reserve the right to mark any answer as N/A for any reason, especially low value answers (i.e. "Tesla" or "United States") according to my judgement. Please ask beforehand. [payments for submissions won't be returned]

  • Literally submissions will only be based on what Musk directly types on X in his own posts and in the text above reposts. This does not include what other people write or what he uses in replies. Furthermore, it does not include what he says in a video or what is visible in a picture or meme, even if these contain words.

Resolution criteria

  • I'll be fairly relaxed, but it should be clear and obvious. I.e. if he tweets "the president does[...]," Joe Biden would resolve to yes. However, "Obamacare" won't resolve "Obama." "Transgender" isn't enough to resolve "LGBT," but "LGBTQIA+" and "transgender, [...] homosexuals and bisexuals" would resolve "LGBT." If the submission requires an international context, the submission won't resolve if Musk only mentions a single country. If you need more examples, please feel free to ask.

  • I'll use my own judgment and might seek input from mods in unclear cases or decide to N/A.

  • I won't bet in this market except to push certain answers in the ranking.

  • The question closes on July 4th at 0:00 PT. Any submissions without proof by July 5th at 0:00 PST will be resolved as NO.

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