Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)?
Jul 28
Overreacting (Biden's odds will recover)
Reacting sanely (Biden's odds will stay about the same)
Underreacting (Biden's odds will fall even further)

Since the debate, many markets have drastically shifted their odds. This market will resolve to Overreacting/Underreacting/Reacting sanely if at least two out of the three markets are within the following ranges during 20 out of the 24 hours before market closure. If the odds are fluctuating too much, I'll extend the closing time of this market by another 24 hours.

/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 [Biden's odds are at 30%]

If Biden <25%: Underreacting

If Biden >35%: Overreacting

If 25%<= Biden <= 35%: Reacting sanely

/Joshua/biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-4aaa70896f6e [Not before Election Day at 51%]

If Not before Election Day >60%: Underreacting

If Not before Election Day <40%: Overreacting

If 40%<= Not before Election Day <=60%: Reacting sanely

/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 [Biden at 75%]

If Biden <65%: Underreacting

If Biden >85%: Overreacting

If 65%<= Biden <= 85%: Reacting sanely

In the unexpected occurrence that there is a market in each category, I'll resolve this market as "Reacting sanely". The percentage shown on the website/app UI matters, not the exact percentage shown by the API. If markets resolve, the percentage will be counted as either 0% or 100% according to the resolution.

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Conflux published this fantastic article about Biden's situation from a prediction market/Manifold perspective and it is well worth a read for a little deep dive:

Conflux published this fantastic article about Biden's situation from a prediction market/Manifold perspective and it is well worth a read for a little deep dive:

such an interesting market! and right now weirdly the prediction is less than 10% that the odds for Biden will stay how they are, but people are very divided about what happens does he go even lower or does he recovers.

bought Ṁ50 Reacting sanely (Bid... YES

Yeah that was clearly unreasonable. Fixed

"Reacting sanely" seems like a very odd descriptor to use here.

Most likely this market will resolve as either Underreacting or Overreacting, but which of those two will be the actual resolution is uncertain. If the distribution of outcomes is bimodal, then the current 'averaged' odds are a sane reaction even though it would be incredibly unlikely for this market to resolve as Reacting sanely.

This becomes very obvious if you were to hypothetically push this market's resolution date back a year.

I'm glad you love my choice of words so much that you took the time to leave a comment. If you're ever ready to leave the fields of dried words behind and open your wings to welcome a world full of creative expressions that flow through the sky like salmon through the water, please don't hesitate to ask for help.

What a poet!

Truly, I fathom no response capable of assaulting his pristine argument of crystalline artistry.

Thus I selfishly hoard my hollow mana, spitefully denying the light of his creative market.

As a fool I mutter in my dry darkness, "Only 5% of market participants are reacting sanely? It must not be so!"

I think they’re overreacting to the idea that Biden will step aside before the election. Probably properly calibrated to the idea he’ll lose

bought Ṁ50 Overreacting (Biden'... YES

Overreactions trashed my leagues standing just before the end of the month

🫂 Lol, feel you so much 🙃

bought Ṁ150 Reacting sanely (Bid... NO

We’re at an inflection point. Either Biden recovers substantially or he will be replaced (or his odds go down even more). I think it’s pretty unlikely odds stay close to where they are.


Peak Manifold occurs when people overreact on overreacting...

We need a poll on that. Keep moving it up another level.

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