Is Manifold overreacting or underreacting after the first presidential debate on CNN (compared to next month)?
332
1kแน€110k
resolved Jul 28
ABC's George Stephanopoulos' interview with Biden
Jul 5
Biden's press conference after NATO
Jul 11
Trump assassination attempt
Jul 13
Biden caught COVID
Jul 16
100%99.0%
Underreacting (Biden's odds will fall even further)
0.9%
Overreacting (Biden's odds will recover)
0.2%
Reacting sanely (Biden's odds will stay about the same)

Since the debate, many markets have drastically shifted their odds. This market will resolve to Overreacting/Underreacting/Reacting sanely if at least two out of the three markets are within the following ranges during 20 out of the 24 hours before market closure. If the odds are fluctuating too much, I'll extend the closing time of this market by another 24 hours.

/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 [Biden's odds are at 30%]

If Biden <25%: Underreacting

If Biden >35%: Overreacting

If 25%<= Biden <= 35%: Reacting sanely

/Joshua/biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-4aaa70896f6e [Not before Election Day at 51%]

If Not before Election Day >60%: Underreacting

If Not before Election Day <40%: Overreacting

If 40%<= Not before Election Day <=60%: Reacting sanely

/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 [Biden at 75%]

If Biden <65%: Underreacting

If Biden >85%: Overreacting

If 65%<= Biden <= 85%: Reacting sanely

In the unexpected occurrence that there is a market in each category, I'll resolve this market as "Reacting sanely". The percentage shown on the website/app UI matters, not the exact percentage shown by the API. If markets resolve, the percentage will be counted as either 0% or 100% according to the resolution.

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