Since the debate, many markets have drastically shifted their odds. This market will resolve to Overreacting/Underreacting/Reacting sanely if at least two out of the three markets are within the following ranges during 20 out of the 24 hours before market closure. If the odds are fluctuating too much, I'll extend the closing time of this market by another 24 hours.
/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 [Biden's odds are at 30%]
If Biden <25%: Underreacting
If Biden >35%: Overreacting
If 25%<= Biden <= 35%: Reacting sanely
/Joshua/biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-4aaa70896f6e [Not before Election Day at 51%]
If Not before Election Day >60%: Underreacting
If Not before Election Day <40%: Overreacting
If 40%<= Not before Election Day <=60%: Reacting sanely
/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 [Biden at 75%]
If Biden <65%: Underreacting
If Biden >85%: Overreacting
If 65%<= Biden <= 85%: Reacting sanely
In the unexpected occurrence that there is a market in each category, I'll resolve this market as "Reacting sanely". The percentage shown on the website/app UI matters, not the exact percentage shown by the API. If markets resolve, the percentage will be counted as either 0% or 100% according to the resolution.
Related questions
Conflux published this fantastic article about Biden's situation from a prediction market/Manifold perspective and it is well worth a read for a little deep dive:
https://news.manifold.markets/p/bidens-paths-forward-according-to
Conflux published this fantastic article about Biden's situation from a prediction market/Manifold perspective and it is well worth a read for a little deep dive:
https://news.manifold.markets/p/bidens-paths-forward-according-to
"Reacting sanely" seems like a very odd descriptor to use here.
Most likely this market will resolve as either Underreacting or Overreacting, but which of those two will be the actual resolution is uncertain. If the distribution of outcomes is bimodal, then the current 'averaged' odds are a sane reaction even though it would be incredibly unlikely for this market to resolve as Reacting sanely.
This becomes very obvious if you were to hypothetically push this market's resolution date back a year.
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What a poet!
