Since the debate, many markets have drastically shifted their odds. This market will resolve to Overreacting/Underreacting/Reacting sanely if at least two out of the three markets are within the following ranges during 20 out of the 24 hours before market closure. If the odds are fluctuating too much, I'll extend the closing time of this market by another 24 hours.
/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964 [Biden's odds are at 30%]
If Biden <25%: Underreacting
If Biden >35%: Overreacting
If 25%<= Biden <= 35%: Reacting sanely
/Joshua/biden-vs-trump-polling-average-when-4aaa70896f6e [Not before Election Day at 51%]
If Not before Election Day >60%: Underreacting
If Not before Election Day <40%: Overreacting
If 40%<= Not before Election Day <=60%: Reacting sanely
/ManifoldPolitics/who-will-win-the-2024-democratic-pr-47576e90fa38 [Biden at 75%]
If Biden <65%: Underreacting
If Biden >85%: Overreacting
If 65%<= Biden <= 85%: Reacting sanely
In the unexpected occurrence that there is a market in each category, I'll resolve this market as "Reacting sanely". The percentage shown on the website/app UI matters, not the exact percentage shown by the API. If markets resolve, the percentage will be counted as either 0% or 100% according to the resolution.
1,000
3.00
Conflux published this fantastic article about Biden's situation from a prediction market/Manifold perspective and it is well worth a read for a little deep dive:
https://news.manifold.markets/p/bidens-paths-forward-according-to
The DNC accelerating the nomination process is very good for "reacting sanely" here. The market for Biden winning the presidency contingent on him being the nominee is at 28% now. His odds of being the nominee are 75%.
If the nominee is more or less known by July 28 when this market resolves, it looks very likely that Biden's nomination odds say "overreacting", poll question says "underreacting" and odds of presidency say "reacting sanely".
Two weeks to go, and that's the current standing:
Biden has a 18% chance of getting reelected (If Biden <25%: Underreacting)
90% chance to not retake the lead in polls before Election Day (If Not before Election Day >60%: Underreacting)
72% chance to win the nomination (If 65%<= Biden <= 85%: Reacting sanely)
Conflux published this fantastic article about Biden's situation from a prediction market/Manifold perspective and it is well worth a read for a little deep dive:
https://news.manifold.markets/p/bidens-paths-forward-according-to
"Reacting sanely" seems like a very odd descriptor to use here.
Most likely this market will resolve as either Underreacting or Overreacting, but which of those two will be the actual resolution is uncertain. If the distribution of outcomes is bimodal, then the current 'averaged' odds are a sane reaction even though it would be incredibly unlikely for this market to resolve as Reacting sanely.
This becomes very obvious if you were to hypothetically push this market's resolution date back a year.
I'm glad you love my choice of words so much that you took the time to leave a comment. If you're ever ready to leave the fields of dried words behind and open your wings to welcome a world full of creative expressions that flow through the sky like salmon through the water, please don't hesitate to ask for help.
What a poet!
