Please note: All definitions and rules outlined by the market creator (@Lion) apply solely to the Mana version of this question. I can only address questions related to the Mana version. For questions about the Sweepstakes market, please contact Manifold Markets directly.
The Mana version will be resolved according to the following rules. If you have any questions or if any resolution criteria or edge cases are unclear, please ask before trading. Otherwise, the Mana version will be resolved based on my judgement. Note that the Mana version may resolve differently from the Sweepstakes version.
Donald J. Trump must be directly named as the Person of the Year for this market to resolve as YES. For example, if TIME Magazine’s 2024 Person of the Year is named as "Donald J. Trump," "Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance," "Donald J. Trump and The Grand Old Party," or "Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk," this market will resolve as YES. However, if the Person of the Year is identified as a group or entity that does not directly name Trump, such as "All Americans" or "The Grand Old Party," this market will resolve as NO.
This question specifically pertains to Donald John Trump, born on June 14, 1946, the 45th President of the United States and winner of the 2024 US election. If another person, such as Donald Trump Jr., is named without the explicit inclusion of Donald J. Trump, the market will resolve as NO. (“Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr.” would still resolve as YES)
The close date for this market will be adjusted to the evening before TIME Magazine announces the Person of the Year (POTY). Liquidity might be reduced earlier.
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@10thOfficial I Wikipedia’d to see if they did this to every president elect, and they did, even for 2nd term presidents
@ZaneMiller and Reagan and - yeah, looking back it looks like there were a *lot* of years the president-elect didn't get it
@ZaneMiller Reelected incumbents aren't considered "presidents-elect" but I get your point.
The only reelected incumbents chosen PotY on their reelection year were Nixon, Dubya, and Obama. The only presidents-elect (not incumbents) not chosen PotY on their election year were Ike, JFK, Nixon, and Bush Sr. Trump is unique in that he was twice president-elect (only he and Cleveland in late 19th century).
@ZaneMiller Hey, You're right, I fucked up and forgot about that in my initial post; but I thought It happened enough times in the past 30 years to consider it a strong indicator.
@JannesH TIME does not select multiple people unless they are categorically similar (Biden and Harris, The Guardians, Ebola fighters, The Good Samaritans)
@thepurplebull Trump and Musk would fulfill the same category though, as Musk is even sometimes called „vice president“. Not officially though, but as the vice president has nearly zero power on paper, so does Elon Musk, which definitely opens the door to being Trumps second man, which he already is anyways
Entering additional evidence for consideration. Take it as you see it.
Most recent TIME covers are Elon Musk, Donald Trump, and a separate Special Edition on Donald Trump.
2024 Cover Count
TRUMP: 3 (incl. Special Edition)
HARRIS: 2
BIDEN: 1
Now also note the covers preceding these most recent Musk & Trump covers and the audience they cater to. In particular the Special Edition 'Best of Person of the Year: Leaders who Made a Better World' with Taylor Swift, Obama, and JFK featured.
There is a message there to TIMEs readers.
