Will another CEO be assassinated before the next 5 school shootings?
Basic
28
Ṁ599
2025
6%
chance

Background

On October 12, 2024, UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson was assassinated in what appears to be a targeted attack. According to law enforcement, the suspect Luigi Mangione allegedly carried out a premeditated attack. As of October 15, 2024, there have been 58 incidents of school shootings in the United States this year.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if a CEO of any publicly traded company is assassinated before 5 separate school shooting incidents occur in the United States. It will resolve NO if 5 school shootings occur before any CEO assassination.

Will use mainstream outlet reporting for CEO killing and https://k12ssdb.org

for school stastistics. stastistics.

  • Update 2024-11-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The CEO assassination must be of a US publicly traded company

    • The assassination must be widely believed to be targeting the CEO position as reported by mainstream media

    • Deaths from personal feuds, crimes of passion, petty crimes (like robbery) will not count as assassinations for market resolution

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what counts as a school shooting?

@noonglade Really needs clarification. WaPo once included an incident where campus police shot a sword wielding moron in their "school shooting database".

@LiamZ is this only considering shootings in the US?

@snazzlePop Looks like it from the description, yes.

The angle shot I see is asking if it has to be a US traded company or if any company on any stock exchange in the world counts.

Currently, I read it as the whole world of publically traded companies being fair game.

@snazzlePop USA only, yes. I should clarify that the CEO assassination should be a CEO of a publicly traded company where the assassin is widely believed to be acting based on the position as reported by mainstream media rather than a personal feud, crime of passion, petty crime, etc.

If a random small business owner gets killed in a robbery, that will not resolve YES, for example.

reposted

now thats a question

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