Will economic inactivity in the UK be substantially worse (>=22.5%) in the 2025 Feb-Apr period?
5
100Ṁ140Jul 31
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The precise question is: Will the 2025 FEB-APR UK working-age economic inactivity rate be 22.5% or above?
It's just a bet on a future datum from this time series:
22.1, 22.3, 22.1, 22.2, 21.9, 21.8 so far this year (2024 JAN-MAR to JUN-AUG rolling averages). So 2024 FEB-APR it was 22.3, and 2023 FEB-APR it was 21.4.
It seems to me like this data will be released around mid-2025, hence the closing date.
(So a Yes ~ economic inactivity will increase, a No ~ economic inactivity will decrease)
(I have initially bet Yes up to 66% new probability)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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