Will economic inactivity in the UK be substantially worse (>=22.5%) in the 2025 Feb-Apr period?
5
100Ṁ140Jul 31
31%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The precise question is: Will the 2025 FEB-APR UK working-age economic inactivity rate be 22.5% or above?
It's just a bet on a future datum from this time series:
22.1, 22.3, 22.1, 22.2, 21.9, 21.8 so far this year (2024 JAN-MAR to JUN-AUG rolling averages). So 2024 FEB-APR it was 22.3, and 2023 FEB-APR it was 21.4.
It seems to me like this data will be released around mid-2025, hence the closing date.
(So a Yes ~ economic inactivity will increase, a No ~ economic inactivity will decrease)
(I have initially bet Yes up to 66% new probability)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
What will the UK employment rate be in July 2025?
73.7
What will the unemployment rate be in June 2025?
Will Unemployment in the US Reach 5.5% in 2025?
70% chance
Will Unemployment in the US Reach 6.5% in 2025?
38% chance
Will the US Civilian labor force participation rate in January 2026 be above that in January 2022?
24% chance
Will unemployment increase to greater than 25% at any point between now and 2031?
23% chance
If the Unemployment Rate is 5% or less what will it be by EOY 2024?
Will the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) data series on FRED be greater than 4.5% on January 1, 2026?
78% chance
Will total applications for asylum in the UK be higher in 2025 than in 2024?
28% chance
Will US unemployment be 25% or more before 2030?
11% chance