Intended to only include startups which focus primarily on AI, as opposed to startups in some other area that happen to also have an AI aspect. Includes both capabilities and alignment orgs. Funding can be over multiple rounds, the total amount is considered. Must be public information.
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https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/musks-x-ai-to-raise-1-billion
xAI was founded by Musk in Nevada on March 9, 2023
This market should resolve to YES.
It was just filed with the SEC (equity offering).
@ersatz Main issue toward a Yes is there just is not much time left in the year. HMMMM.
@Eliza Given the backing from MSFT, seemed unlikely. Even if he could get investors to promise the sums, it'd likely take some time to get that funding.
But totally valid point, the market should've moved a bit during the OpenAI saga, and had I remembered the market, I would've. I just forgot.
@firstuserhere There was a lot of speculation of "start a new company" without specifically mentioning Microsoft, especially in the first day.
@Eliza Yeah, I think most of us were just overwhelmed with everything that was going on and had the userbase been larger, I'd expect the market to have been moved
So, I've sold my position and taken my loss here. Sorry @firstuserhere; I'll make sure to read news articles/market descriptions a bit better next time.
What happened:
1. I read news reports about 01.A1 (a Chinese AI startup founded in March) achieving a 1B+ valuation.
2. I bet this market up to 90%. I kept betting it up.
3. I posted a baiting comment in discord cause I wanted to cackle evilly as I earned money from those so foolish as to disbelieve my confidence. @FUH bet with me 😔!
4. I reread the comments a moment ago and said "ohh crap, this is about funding not about valuation"....
@RobertCousineau Okay! That was one I found, however it looks like there are at least two other candidates that are founded in 2023 that have some nonzero chance to secure 1 billion in funding, although neither one seems to be very likely.
@Eliza Mistral AI has already gotten over 100 million and looking at 400 million more "soon". I don't see how it could double and still close this year but "a chance".
The other obvious one with some possible story would be x.ai, but it seems really unlikely to need that much money in the next two months.
@RobertCousineau It is no trouble at all! It is well worth it, for the few occassions these things do happen. See my comment on Zen Stock
@YoavTzfati OpenAI got $10B from msft this year https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-23/microsoft-makes-multibillion-dollar-investment-in-openai
@YoavTzfati looks like they raised 10B in January. But they raised 300M in April.
Regardless - it's insane for a startup less than 1 year old to raise 1B dollars. Evan valuating over 1B is super rare, let alone raising it.
@YoavTzfati 1B raising should be practically impossible for a company 1 year out. It would require an absurd valuation for an exceptional circumstance where necessary growth/scaling expenses justify a massive funding round.
No way it happens, especially not in AI where the costs are low and the threat to IP is so high
@IlyaXValmianski They raised 120k in the first 12 months they were founded. Not even remotely close to $1B initial funding, it was 6 years later
@Gen According to Wikipedia they had $1B pledged at formation to the non-profit https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenAI, this is also roughly what I remember from when it happened. They were able to draw from pledges freely to fund the development.