Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?
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62
2.9k
2028
36%
chance

Prediction #4 in my "Great Logging Off" market

Meta-market:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/how-many-of-my-predictions-in-marke-089c96830000?groupId=KgzUh68PEIltJSzCnmF2

Blog post:
https://www.fortressofdoors.com/ai-markets-for-lemons-and-the-great-logging-off

This resolves YES, if, by the end of 2027, in my sole opinion:

There is EITHER a measurable and significant increase in offline socialization and traditional social face-to-face institutions (e.g., churches, bowling leagues, heck even going to bars and dance halls counts), OR, a significant increase in the intensity and number of hours of attendance of offline social institutions by those currently attending, even if overal attendance doesn't rise.

Dec 27, 12:14pm: Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by 2027? → Will we see an increased premium put on offline socialization by the end of 2027?

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Lars I don't think you should bet on your own markets that are not third party validated anymore given recent events on manifold, you are the largest yes holder not a good look.

predicts YES

@PatrickDelaney what recent events?

If you are alleging that I have resolved any markets unfairly you are more than welcome to point to any such incidents. I care a lot more about my reputation than I do fake internet points.

FWIW I asked the community about this question earlier and most people seem fine with it:
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/is-it-acceptable-for-a-market-maker
https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/is-it-acceptable-for-a-market-maker-06a71baaf65c

predicts NO

@LarsDoucet Wales vs. Minnows. Yes, I know you did, thank you for that - I answered and was in support of it back then but I have changed my mind. Here is my comment on your linked market. https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/is-it-acceptable-for-a-market-maker#fGFf9ummPF68YHgfQm4S

If anything people will retreat more online. Think of generation alpha being 20 years old having been radicalized to be permanently in front of a screen since birth.

predicts NO

@PatrickDelaney if you are betting on this market you are literally online not in a meat space so it's hypocritical to vote yes.

@LarsDoucet if people are hanging out in meatspaces but doing activities enhanced by internet-attached AR, is that a yes or a no? 😄 (I know, I’m a PITA 🤣)

predicts YES

@MattCWilson I don't think resolution is going to turn on this, but if they're hanging out face to face in the same physical location, and the alternative is they would be hanging out separately mediated through a screen, sure.

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