There's an attempt to get this on the ballot for 2024. This market resolves YES if:
Prominent Alaska Republicans support it
It actually gets on the ballot
The measure succeeds
Otherwise it resolves NO at the expiration date, or if it becomes clear earlier that it won't happen (ie not enough signatures are gathered and the deadline to get in the ballot passes)
Court cases / injunctions are irrelevant for this market's purposes
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The #2 Republican in the primary dropped out to coalesce support behind the #1 Republican in the general election
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/alaska-republicans-unite-to-defeat-peltola/ar-AA1posRy
This is ridiculous. Peltola won because nobody liked Palin, except the hardline Trump supporters. She still would have won in a regular primary->FPTP election, as evidenced by the last round results. Because there were 3 candidates, this literally was a primary->FPTP election done at once.
IRV is not to blame here, this is an excuse by Republicans to get it off the ballot because they believe it might cost them in the future.
@nikki No, Peltola had 51.5% in the last round. That's a majority. Even if you award all exhausted votes to Palin, Peltola still wins.
@ShadowyZephyr Majority of unexhausted votes. Peltola got 47%, Palin got 44% and exhausted got 8%. No majority of total ballots. Palin wins with all exhausted votes
Oh, I was talking about House 2022, which was when Republicans started getting mad about it. In the special, ballot exhaustion could have swung the result, but I doubt those people would have voted in a 2-way between Palin and Peltola anyway. Otherwise they would have just ranked Palin second.
@ShadowyZephyr if FPTP were used, there would not be two Republicans on the same ballot splitting the vote