There's an attempt to get this on the ballot for 2024. This market resolves YES if:
Prominent Alaska Republicans support it
It actually gets on the ballot
Otherwise it resolves NO at the expiration date, or if it becomes clear earlier that it won't happen (ie not enough signatures are gathered and the deadline to get in the ballot passes)
Court cases / injunctions, and the actual outcome of the election should the measure get on the ballot, are irrelevant for this market's purposes
Related questions
@KevinBurke It probably will.
Ballotopedia suggests “The legislature can also pass substantially similar legislation, which would render the initiative void.”
Not sure how it would resolve in that scenario.
https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Repeal_Top-Four_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Initiative_(2024)
@JimHays It'll resolve YES or NO based on the letter of the description. So if they pass a law that gets rid of ranked choice voting and makes a ballot initiative moot, it resolves NO.
@LarsDoucet For clarity's sake, if the initiative gets on the ballot, regardless of what else happens, as long as prominent republicans also supported it, it resolves YES.
@Snarflak Yeah saw that. Curious about him being the “only statewide candidate” to do so. Is he the MAGA candidate?
@LarsDoucet What do you mean “only statewide candidate”? Palin is the MAGA candidate and Begich is the more moderate Republican, no?
@Snarflak Begich’s tweet: “I was proud to sign the RCV repeal petition in Alaska (I’m told the only statewide candidate to do so), and I thank the hundreds of volunteers across the state who organized to put this issue on the ballot.”
This implies he was the only statewide candidate to sign the petition.
As for MAGA affinity, I’m not from Alaska, so I was wondering if that’s what Begich was signaling by “America first” in his profile or not. Is Palin running this year again too?
As for "Prominent Alaska Republicans support it":
https://twitter.com/NickforAlaska/status/1768887204821287171
It's a shame that instant runoff voting (the second-worst voting method) is the only method that is actually getting any traction against first-past-the-post (the worst one). If election reformers could get a state to actually use a decent voting method like STAR voting, I think efforts to repeal it would have a much harder time getting off the ground, since those methods don't produce the same kind of wonky results that both first past the post and IRV can.
@Snarflak Funny, I was thinking of making a poll like that sometime, but I wasn't sure what voting method to use for the poll.
@PlasmaBallin IRV is certainly not that good, but it's probably still better than Borda Count. (There are also a bunch of theoretical voting systems that are bad, like anti-plurality, that are just for theory and will never be used in real elections)