Here's an ASK HN thread I posted on whether Moore's Law is dead or not:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35997975

It seems to descend a bit into a semantic argument about what you mean by "Moore's Law". If you go by transistor count, the consensus in that particular thread is that we're still meeting the technical predictions every two years. But if you go by cost and power, those seem to have come unglued over the last decade and so what "Moore's Law" meant to the average computer enthusiast in 1999 seems to no longer be operating and is thus "dead."

So for the purposes of THIS market I define "The Spirit of Moore's Law" as being:

• About every two years, computers get about twice as powerful for the same price

• About every two years, computers get about twice as cheap for the same power

  This is important because it means you can just rely on hardware advancement to make your old code faster.

  Also, whether the "Spirit" of Moore's Law is dead or not has important implications for AI timelines, even if the literal transistor count part is still on track.

  Essentially this market is looking for a definitive answer to whether the ongoing free lunch of cheap computational advancement I experienced in my childhood and young adulthood has substantially slowed down.

  On January 1, 2024, I'll review the evidence. If I'm convinced the party is over, this resolves YES. If I'm not convinced or I'm only kinda convinced but there's a strong lingering reasonable doubt, this resolves NO.

I won't bet in this market, but I will subsidize it.

To be clear, the way to profit on this market is: bet in the direction you think is true, and then go gather as much evidence as you can to convince me that's correct, and post it here.