This market resolves YES, if in my opinion, any company has formed a defensible moat around an LLM-based AI, and it is not yet 2025.

What does a defensible moat look like? There's no single perfectly objective test, but it generally looks like this:

• The company is making a lot of money

• They are far ahead of their closest competition both in terms of market share and/or in terms of profits (market share is a really strong indicator tho)

• Other companies have a hard time catching up and putting a dent in their market share, even if their technology is "just as good" or "almost as good"

• Alternatively, if nobody else's product/service is anywhere close to as good, that's another good sign of a defensible moat

• There's a strong network effect or other source of natural or artificial lock-in that makes it hard for users to leave the ecosystem

• The business press talks about them having a defensible moat and even identifies what it is

If a legal or natural monopoly is clearly established, that would also probably do the trick.