Will any "Anti-AI art" law be created in the USA in 2023?
resolved Jan 3

This resolves to "YES" if any laws are passed (or judicial rulings made with the force of law) in the USA that has the specific intent of hindering generative AI art projects and/or companies. Examples include, but are not limited to:

  • Copyright laws/rulings that make it clear that training generative AI on copyrighted imagery counts as making a derivative work

  • Laws/rulings regarding people's personal likenesses that impose restrictions on tools & software capable of generating them, or penalties on those who create them

  • Laws/rulings against creating e.g. pornography with somebody's face without their consent

State and Federal laws and judicial rulings all qualify.

This is a fairly broad brush I'm painting with, and will be resolved subjectively in my sole (but trying to be fair) opinion, BUT there are two objective tests I will subject all the above criteria to:

  • MUST BE NEW LAW: the legislation or judicial ruling has to be new. It can't have already existed as of when this market was posted.

  • MUST BURDEN THE SOFTWARE/COMPANY: it's not enough to say "no individual is allowed to produce a picture of type X using these tools," because arguably that's already the case with e.g. photoshop. It has to have some burden that attaches liability to an individual or company who produces or maintains or trains software that can produce a picture of type X.

    Close date updated to 2023-12-31 11:59 pm

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predicted YES

What law resolved this yes? EDIT: Sorry I don't know why I thought this resolved YES.


@Joshua Good catch

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Created yes, passed no. I suggest changing the title to remove this ambiguity.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Mostly buying NO on the basis of it taking too long for the legal system to act

predicted NO

@LarsDoucet if a law were to pass specifically about the legal status of generated CSAM, would that count here (assuming that law doesn't target generative models more generally)?

predicted YES

@VivaLaPanda If, on analysis, it turns out to burden the tool in some general way, rather than just attach liability to an individual who uses the tool to generate that stuff. The test is basically "is it basically the same liability for making the image with Photoshop as with a generative model," or does it put fundamental restrictions on everyone who uses the generative software in a way that doesn't apply to Photoshop.

Put another way -- if it is currently legal to produce and ship a tool capable of generating a certain category of image today, but tomorrow it becomes illegal to produce and ship a tool capable of generating that same category of image, then sure, it counts.

sold Ṁ16 of NO

@LarsDoucet Selling down in response then. Still think it's not super likely because law is slow, but there's lots of precedent for more aggressive legal action wrt CSAM, which will almost certainly become an issue

predicted YES

@VivaLaPanda Yeah. Basically what I'm trying to capture here is companies being forced to significantly alter their models, limiting what everyone can produce with them. Stricter CSAM laws presumably wouldn't force Adobe to make it "less possible" to manually make fictional CSAM images in Photoshop, but I could see it with e.g. the large diffusion based image models, b/c you never know what you can tease those into producing. Timeline is definitely tight for the general speed of law.

Revenge porn laws might qualify. I don't know if there are any in the pipeline though.

predicted YES

@Multicore Assuming they burden the tool generally and not just the user choosing to use it in that specific way, totally.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

Pretty sure the legal system doesn't work that fast.

predicted YES

@horse Yeah probably not. But state laws do count, and there are fifty of them. Just takes one.

I'm sure judges will tell you that their rulings are never with the intent of helping or hindering anyone, but just impartially interpreting the laws and constitutions without fear or favor.

Lies, of course. But I'm not sure how you'd resolve this market in that case.

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@MartinRandall We look at the effects of the law. If, for instance, they rule that training on copyrighted art is unequivocally a violation of copyright that has the practical effect of making things harder, and resolves YES