Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2024?
Will another Forbes 30 under 30 member be arrested for fraud before 2024?
27
530Ṁ57k
resolved Jun 9
Resolved
YES

This market resolves YES, if:

  • A member of the Forbes 30 under 30 lists is arrested and charged with fraud

  • This happens after the date this market was opened

  • The member had not previously been arrested and charged with fraud before

  • It is not yet 2024

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David Petersen boughtṀ505NO
1y

@DavidPetersen Why the hard no? Are the charges public yet?

1y

@BTE Was he arrested for fraud?

predictedYES 1y

@LarsDoucet They haven’t announced charges yet but that’s what he was being investigated for apparently. So we will find out tomorrow likely.

predictedYES 1y

@LarsDoucet Got it. For clarity this market will only resolve YES if we get a credible statement of arrest that has fraud (or something that constitutes fraud) in the charges

predictedYES 1y

@LarsDoucet Also has this guy been arrested for fraud before?

predictedYES 1y

@LarsDoucet I saw that. And not that I can find.

predictedYES 1y

@BTE Cool, thanks. Thanks for pointing this out! We’ll see how it develops. Post here if/when we get charges

1y

@LarsDoucet charged with fraud, bu never arrested before, it appears. However, as I'm a layman, is there a clear distinction between fraud and "making false statements to mortgage lenders"? As in: https://spectrumlocalnews.com/tx/austin/news/2023/06/09/businessman-linked-to-texas-ag-ken-paxton-s-impeachment-charged-with-lying-to-get--172m-in-loans

predictedYES 1y

@LeonardoKroger No. That is fraudulently obtaining a loan.

predictedYES 1y

@LeonardoKroger The real important question is has he been “arrested AND charged with fraud” BEFORE the market was posted. If he hasn’t been, then we don’t need to split hairs on the accusations

1y

@LarsDoucet Haha, just contempt of court earlier this year. Not fraud.

predictedYES 1y

@LarsDoucet Oh I misread this. Yeah if you commit fraud to get a loan that’s fraud.

So it seems:

  • he was arrested after the market posted

  • For fraud

  • He had not previously been arrested AND charged with fraud before the market posted

Can we confirm all that?

predictedYES 1y

@LarsDoucet he has been under investigation associated with Texas AG Len Paxton who is about to be impeached.

1y

@LarsDoucet imho it's confirmed

predictedYES 1y

@LeonardoKroger Just did some searches and agree. He was arrested in March for contempt of court, and this market was posted in April. He was arrested for lying to the court, but the legal definition of fraud is essentially lying to obtain financial benefit. Contempt != fraud, this is a new 30 under 30 fraud arrest after the market was posted, and resolves YES.

2y

so Shkreli, Bankman-Fried, Javice, and...?

2y

As @TravisBaker pointed out, the name is misleading. They they list over 1000 individuals each year.
https://www.forbes.com/30-under-30/directory/

predictedYES 2y

Also here's my relevant market:

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