Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?
31
1kṀ12k2050
10%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.09512
Resolves YES if by 2050 (or earlier) there emerges a consensus that the proof is correct, or at least a number of prominent complexity theorists describe it as such.
(Things that will be sufficient for a YES: Scott Aaronson or Terry Tao publicly endorses the proof not on April 1st. Wikipedia article for p vs np problem states that it's solved by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou and the edit sticks indefinitely. Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou receive a Fields prize or the Millennium prize.)
Otherwise NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2029-05-01?
67% chance
Will P vs NP be proven to be solvable by the end of 2030?
14% chance
P = NP (will it be proven by April 2027)
2% chance
Will P vs NP be resolved by 2043?
50% chance
P != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)
3% chance
Will P vs NP be resolved by the end of these years?
Will we have a formalized proof of Fermat's last theorem by 2049-05-01?
91% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2050?
61% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2040?
44% chance
Will Goldbach's conjecture be proved before 2030?
23% chance