This entire market is contingent on Twitter "collapsing." See below for a definition of "collapse." If Twitter doesn't "collapse," then this market resolves as N/A.

IF twitter "collapses," then I posit that there will not be a SINGLE widely reocgnized successor that emerges within two years. A SINGLE widely recognized successor is defined as a platform that is A) broadly similar in design and presentation to twitter (chiefly, the "flat" public-by-default social network design where anyone can tag anyone and it's not siloed into subgroups like discord and reddit are) and B) has at least 50%+1 of the peak daily or monthly active user count that Twitter had in 2022.

If there are 0 widely recognized successors, this market resolves YES.

If there is exactly 1 widely recognized successor, this market resolves NO.

If there is exactly 1 widely recognized successor, but it's design is not substantially similar to twitter (for instance, it's internally siloed instead of "flat"), this market resolves YES.

If there are N widely reocgnized successors, but no single one of them has 50%+1 of user mindshare that Twitter did, and N is > 1, then this market resolves YES.

If there are N widely reocgnized successors, and MORE THAN ONE has 50%+1 of user mindshare that Twitter did, and N is > 1, then this market resolves YES.

If twitter doesn't "collapse", this market resolves N/A.

What does "collapse" mean? Informally I'm defining it as being much less popular than it is now, in my sole opinion.

I'm open to suggestions on a more formal definition which I will finalize within the first 3 days of this market opening, but here's loosely where I'm at:

• Has a reduction in total users of X% (25%? 50%?)

• Has a reduction in TOP users of X% (25%? 50%?). TOP defined as the most active 10% of posters.

And probably going with daily active or monthly active users here. If they don't disclose, we'll use proxy stats or our best educated guess. If it happens I feel like it should be obvious, but Musk has burned me on that score before.

#Elon #ElonMusk #Musk #Twitter #Social #Internet