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MANIFOLD
We get distribution market on Manifold by EOY 2027?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10
2027
55%
chance

We get probability distribution market on Manifold by EOY27

Not the same as numerical markets.

At minimum, requires traders to be able to purchase on at least 3 parameters. Possible examples include skew normal distributions, or multiple distinct numerical ranges (eg. 0%-1% and 99%-100%)

Distribution market

Dave White (@_Dave__White_) on X

https://www.paradigm.xyz/2024/12/distribution-markets

Dave White (@_Dave__White_) on X
I've been working on prediction markets for events whose outcomes aren't just "yes" or "no." Instead of betting on just one outcome, traders in Distribution Markets can express how likely they think each different possibility is across the whole infinite range of outcomes. 1/
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Market shamelessly copied from

/TonyGao/will-manifold-support-distribution

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