Will someone else be richer than Elon Musk at the end of 2023?
66
570
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resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

If Elon Musk loses his title but then regains it before the end of this year, then it will not count as yes. As long as Elon Musk is the richest man in the world going in to 2024 then it count as no.

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predicted NO

@LampInASuit I think this can be resolved now to NO. With 50 billion difference between him and Arnault there shouldn't be any doubt.

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#42fe8093d788

bought Ṁ377 of NO

Back to over $50bn ahead and not much time to lose that much of a lead.

In addition, could this https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/musks-spacex-value-jumps-closer-180-bln-tender-offer-bloomberg-news-2023-12-13/

increase SpaceX value from $150bn to $180bn which might add another $10bn-$15bn to Elon's wealth?

bought Ṁ101 of NO

moving down based on Musk's lead growing to 55bn, over 28.5% more than 2nd place:

Musk $250.3bn

Arnault $194.7bn

predicted YES

@LampInASuit You can't just completely change the question / meaning of the market after people have bet. This is ridiculous.

predicted YES

@TatianaSurver What change are you referring to? It's been consistent since the start

If Elon Musk loses his title but then regains it before the end of this year, then it will not count as yes. As long as Elon Musk is the richest man in the world going in to 2024 then it count as no.

sold Ṁ57 of YES

Having "by end of 2023" in the title seems to contradict the description. Maybe a more clear title would be "Will Elon Musk not be richest man in the world at the end of 2023?" or "Will someone else be richer than Elon Musk at the end of 2023?"

bought Ṁ36 of NO

@A Make sure to use "at" not "by" if you only care about the end state and not what happens in between.

predicted NO

@A (this has caused big controversy in other markets, most people interpret "by" to mean "at any point before" but some people interpret it to mean "at the exact time")

predicted NO

@A Thanks for updating!

bought Ṁ550 of YES

Track it here: https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#19dbae7a3d78 It happens every few days.

sold Ṁ72 of NO

The buffer is almost within the margin of daily variation now

based on?

bought Ṁ10 of YES
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