Vote on resolution here:
https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1gQ1OZB56DvBcqaJp3taSM8l7qgItptwjUQEmMoZs6z8/edit
I have an idea for a feature for manifold.
Idea:
When making a market the market maker can choose to have the resolution determined by a survey of random users rather than they themselves resolving. These users are then payed a small amount of money from the market maker.
Eg. I want to know if the next episode of House of the Dragon will be any good before I waste time watching it. I post a market "Will the next episode of House of the Dragon be any good?" with M$100 liquidity, and M$100 for the survey takers, closing after the episode is released. Everyone thinks the show is going downhill and that the episode will suck. In a normal situation once the market is at a low probability there is no real incentive to bet NO, since best case is the I see the low probability and don't watch it, meaning I can't resolve the market!
With a survey resolved market, after the market closes users logging in can select to earn money by answering surveys. They will be asked "Was the latest episode of House of the Dragon Good?" and will earn M$1 for responding. Once 100 users have responded, the market will resolve to the answer with the most votes (in this case YES or NO).
Advantages of this resolution method:
More confidence in betting on markets with highly subjective outcomes, since it's a population answer rather than a single person (is X good, do people have a positive view of Y)
Guarantees resolution of the market in some direction
Allows users with no reputation to make markets with confidence of a fair resolution
Harder to conspire to rig a market with someone
Disadvantages
Some invetive to lie on surveys if you are invested in the market, although your incentive is still to bet your true belief when initially investing
Maybe a bit complicated
Possibly most of the advantages can be achieved with derivative markets already
Resolution: I will post a Yes/No survey here asking if this is a good idea when the market closes, and resolve to what has the most votes from the first 100 responders, or what has the most after 1 week whichever comes first.
Inspired in part by this thread:
https://twitter.com/ManifoldMarkets/status/1574892827368202264?t=zGt6k__j9H050iYcS_csLQ&s=19
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ26 | |
| 2 | Ṁ22 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ9 |
People are also trading
@Yev Yeah sure, but then they still are incentivised to buy the shares based on their best initial prediction.
@LachlanMunro It's asking me if I want to submit another response. You should probably limit it to 1 per ip.
For that specific use case, you could look at IMDB ratings.
I do think resolve to poll is promising and I've been testing it out: /Sinclair/is-hotdog-a-sandwich-poll /Sinclair/which-hogwarts-house-is-the-best-po
@Sinclair Thanks. Yes not the best specific example maybe.
Also apparently liking a comment tips $10, and clicking again doesn't undo it like most websites but sends another $10 so...enjoy the $20 I guess.