Will manifold trial in 2022 any new methods to increase ease of trade-level interpretability of how a market's price is funded, and what other markets the traders had succeeded from?
7
9
180
resolved Jan 6
Resolved
NO

this market resolves yes as soon as such a method that matches the description is trialed, and does not resolve no until market close, at which point it resolves n/a if a method that was tried ambiguously matches the description, and resolves no if nothing matches. if manifold tries a technique, that qualifies for a yes, whether the technique is kept or not.

example events that would resolve yes immediately:

  • Manifold trials a visualization shown on a market's page A of some kind of summary of traders's trades on markets besides A when market page A is viewed, eg "traders who own yes made the money that bought the yes shares from [starting balance, buy-no-then-sell-no on market b which resolved yes, buy yes on market c which resolved yes]"

  • Manifold provides an entire-network currency flow chord graph on the homepage

  • Manifold trials splitting accounts' balances into multiple play-currencies, divided by some market category or level of market clarity

  • Manifold trials visualizing each trader's income from a given market A on market A's page

  • Manifold trials a new way to contest a market's resolution criteria ahead of time, before the market has closed

example events that would, if the market would otherwise resolve "no" due to no match, cause this market to instead resolve n/a due to ambiguity in whether they matched this market's description:

  • Manifold makes traders' trade histories easier to open, but does not display them on any pages besides user-specific pages

  • Manifold creates more complex visualizations of trade histories, but they're only on user-specific pages

  • Manifold updates rules to ban markets that are ambiguous more precisely

example events that would definitely not qualify for a "yes":

  • Manifold marks specific users's acounts via targeted human intervention

  • Manifold creates new visualizations of your own trade history for your eyes only

  • Manifold adds ai enforcement of ambiguity rules which already exist and does not do anything to make this more interpretable to humans (this is explicitly disqualified from "yes" as such a method is trivial to evade)

  • Manifold bans categories which were previously allowed and states that the ban is due to ambiguity

  • Manifold adds a system-wide inflation/account decay behavior

  • Manifold adds a system for detecting "beauty contest"-style trades but instead of displaying them, simply bans them

  • Manifold adds a new system or improves an existing system for preventing market manipulation via rapid account creation, but instead of displaying the analysis to traders, simply bans the extra accounts

I will resolve according to my best judgement, after considering arguments made in the comments. if you believe an event warrants a "yes" resolution, please comment with a description of the event.

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hey they did it on the market level, maybe they will do something similar on downstream markets! I'm still personally pessimistic but it's looking more plausible to me, I no longer disagree with 30%

predicted NO

I'm becoming more inclined to think this one isn't happening

bought Ṁ20 of NO

"Manifold trials a new way to contest a market's resolution criteria ahead of time, before the market has closed" 👀 this intrigues me

Will manifold trial in 2022 any new methods to increase ease of trade-level interpretability of how a market's price is funded, and what other markets the traders had succeeded from?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition