When will AGI be released to the public?

MANIFOLD

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2024

2025+

2030+

2035+

2040+

Not until the next century

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What exactly counts as AGI? https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.02462 (page 6) is a good system for classifying AIs, and they classify ChatGPT as emerging AGI.

…when will the public be released to AGI?

@Ophiuchus How the tables have turned.

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In what specific year will we hit AGI?

2030

Will we get AGI before 2028?

24% chance

When will AGI be developed and released to the public?

Will we get AGI before 2032?

58% chance

By when will we have AGI?

Will we get AGI before 2027?

2% chance

Will we get AGI before 2027?

6% chance

When will AGI arrive

By which years will AGI be released (Hendrycks definition >95%)?

Will we get AGI before September 1st 2027?

11% chance

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