Will anyone give @Krantz action at 100:1 odds that his algorithm is a solution to alignment?
3
100Ṁ535
2030
5%
chance

I'm trying to get fair betting odds on the prediction below.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/if-eliezer-charitably-reviewed-my-w?r=S3JhbnR6

Everyone seems to believe it is less than 1% likely.

Will the true odds ever reflect that?

This prediction will resolve 'yes' if the question ever dips below 1% or my limit orders are filled.

It will resolve 'no' if my limit orders fail to be filled before 2030.

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opened a Ṁ1,500 NO at 99.0% order

I've also got a limit order for 'no' at 99% if anyone wants it. Let me know if I need to put in more.

You can't bet a market below 1% on Manifold. It's only possible if somone sells YES shares while it's at 1%.

@MingCat That's unfortunate. Thanks for letting me know. My goal is to fill my limit order at 1%. This wager is supposed to be a mechanism for incentivizing people to do that. I will update the resolution criteria to resolve 'yes' if my limit order is filled.

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