This is a place to track which public figures have assigned academic credence to the possibility that aliens/UAP are real and have been covertly studied for decades.
Will resolve "yes" as individuals express publicly that there is sufficient evidence to suggest a secret program. Will resolve "no" when either (1) individuals die or (2) a secret program is demonstrably proven nonexistent.
Really though, it's a place to keep track of which scientists are open to the UAP topic and bet on when they will reach that point in their scientific inquiry.
1,000People are also trading
@Krantz Hmm. Interesting.
It would appear that this is evidence to support the hypothesis that this will resolve 'yes' for Robin sometime around 2030.
Either that, or he believes our 'alien finding' abilities will radically evolve (sufficiently enough to overcome grabby problems) in the next 5 years.
@Krantz I wonder if I can use this as an example of the potential that exists when we share our prediction market data with each other in a way we can demonstrably operate on.
I hope @RobinHanson understands that I would give anything for him to participate in this specific prediction.
https://manifold.markets/Krantz/what-is-robin-hansons-confidence-in?r=S3JhbnR6
@AlanTennant What person would you suggest as being the best informed to answer this question? Can you point at anyone that you consider qualified?
Maybe you should add them.