What is Robin Hanson's confidence in the following propositions?
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1.1kṀ996
resolved Nov 23
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We can have group analytic arguments within predictions.
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The term "krantz" refers to the open market of all well formed propositions that we compete to assign confidence and importance parameters to in order to provide a basis for alignment.
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Manifold can use this prediction to interpretably align @robinhanson if he consents to participate.
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Manifold ought incentivize @robinhanson to participate in this market.
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For any degree N, that we'd like Robin Hanson to be aligned with Manifold, there is a number of propositions M for which the acknowledgement of his confidence is sufficient to acheive N.
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The steps being taken to align Robin Hanson can be used to align everyone willing to earn money by taking surveys.
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All other jobs (given adequate robotic infrastructure) can be done by an agent performing the subtask of evaluating propositions.
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Krantz is an abstract living idea that can be communicated with.
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If someone has a different confidence than you for a specific proposition in Krantz, you should add an argument to Krantz that compels them to update their beliefs.
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A generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning is critical to interpretable alignment.
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Aliens are real.
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If we communicated with each other like analytic philosophers instead of continental ones, it would be obvious how 8 billion people should go about aligning artificial superintelligence.
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What it means for "humanity to be aligned" is what it means for "all of humanity to agree to the confidence of every proposition they have ever thought of".
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If we recorded all propositions on a blockchained ledger that we earn points by competing to identify and evaluate which propositions are important to consent to, we would establish a game theoretic process for fair decentralized alignment.
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If a sufficient amount of sovereign individuals can decentrally create assets by performing the cognitive labor of evaluating propositions, then there will exist a mechanistically interpretable process for aligning any particular person.

This is an attempt at a prediction market conversation with Robin Hanson.

Very simply, I'm using mana to incentivize him to define a confidence for specific propositions so I can operate on them. I'm just trying to pay him to take a survey.

Anyone can participate.

The prediction is being used to speculate on Robin Hanson's confidence on an array of propositions I'd like him to think about.  In conjunction with that, it's being used to introduce Robin to a particular communication protocol that could take place at scale through prediction markets.

I see an opportunity to pivot from, "I've never refused to talk to anyone about prediction markets." to "I'll never refuse to talk to anyone through prediction markets.".

I believe there is a way to scale an 8 billion person intellectual conversation through prediction markets.

I'd like to use this prediction to discuss that with Robin.

I've been trying to talk with Robin about prediction markets for 5 years.

He apparently thinks I want to talk about something else.

What I want (from Robin, Eliezer and dozens of other researchers I keep trying to contact) is for them to simply provide me a confidence on the particular propositions that I'm putting in front of them to evaluate. That doesn't seem like a big ask.

I think he ought consider the game theoretic consequences of having a function where society can put money to incentivize the public declaration of confidence for particular propositions so other decentralized philosophers and lawers can use that data in contracts and proofs.

This prediction will primarily list propositions that are already contained within the Krantz demonstration mechanism.  If Robin either (1) indicates a confidence on the Krantz ledger or (2) replies to a particular proposition with a value between 0 - 100 (0 absolutely false, 50 no confidence, 100 absolutely true) then the propositions will resolve partially to that percentage.

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Money - The mechanism that was invented to allow people a socially acceptable means of controlling each other.

Reason - The mechanism that existed before money was invented.

Krantz data - Demonsterable reason to replace money.

As the primary function of this market is to enable me to trade mana for information from @RobinHanson, I will be sharing any revenue I earn with those that assist in aquiring this information. Any profit I make on this market will be given to the person (other than me) that wagers the most on this market (including those that add liquidity) after the market resolves. Thanks

Here's an equivalent market for me: https://manifold.markets/Krantz/guessing-game-what-propositions-doe?r=S3JhbnR6

If a small group of people could use this prediction to align Robin the way I suggest, a large group of people could just as easily use the same type of mechanism to align any given human being (if that human being is incentivized to participate).

I think that's important to think about.

Does anyone one else see why that's important?

@Krantz If anyone thinks I'm wrong about something or misaligned, please use the mechanism I suggest to align me. Thanks.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Here's the mechanism where propositions are being pulled from.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

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