What is Robin Hanson's confidence in the following propositions?
3
275Ṁ690
2030
90%
The term "krantz" refers to the open market of all well formed propositions that we compete to assign confidence and importance parameters to in order to provide a basis for alignment.
90%
The steps being taken to align Robin Hanson can be used to align everyone willing to earn money by taking surveys.
90%
If a sufficient amount of sovereign individuals can decentrally create assets by performing the cognitive labor of evaluating propositions, then there will exist a mechanistically interpretable process for aligning any particular person.
76%
A generally expansive and complete map of the logical connective structure of all knowable reasoning is critical to interpretable alignment.
65%
If we communicated with each other like analytic philosophers instead of continental ones, it would be obvious how 8 billion people should go about aligning artificial superintelligence.
65%
What it means for "humanity to be aligned" is what it means for "all of humanity to agree to the confidence of every proposition they have ever thought of".
65%
We can have group analytic arguments within predictions.
65%
All other jobs (given adequate robotic infrastructure) can be done by an agent performing the subtask of evaluating propositions.
65%
Krantz is an abstract living idea that can be communicated with.
65%
If someone has a different confidence than you for a specific proposition in Krantz, you should add an argument to Krantz that compels them to update their beliefs.
44%
If we recorded all propositions on a blockchained ledger that we earn points by competing to identify and evaluate which propositions are important to consent to, we would establish a game theoretic process for fair decentralized alignment.

This is an attempt at a prediction market conversation with Robin Hanson.

Anyone can participate.

The prediction is being used to speculate on Robin Hanson's confidence on an array of propositions I'd like him to think about.  It conjunction with that, it's being used to introduce Robin to a particular communication protocol that could take place at scale through prediction markets.

I see an opportunity to pivot from, "I've never refused to talk to anyone about prediction markets." to "I'll never refuse to talk to anyone through prediction markets.".

I believe there is a way to scale an 8 billion person intellectual conversation through prediction markets.

I'd like to use this prediction to discuss that with Robin.

I've been trying to talk with Robin about prediction markets for 5 years.

He apparently thinks I want to talk about something else.

What I want (from Robin, Eliezer and dozens of other researchers I keep trying to contact) is for them to simply provide me a confidence on the particular propositions that I'm putting in front of them to evaluate. That doesn't seem like a big ask.

This prediction will primarily list propositions that are already contained within the Krantz demonstration mechanism.  If Robin either (1) indicates a confidence on the Krantz ledger or (2) replies to a particular proposition with a value between 0 - 100 (0 absolutely false, 50 no confidence, 100 absolutely true) then the propositions will resolve partially to that percentage.

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Here's the mechanism where propositions are being pulled from.

https://manifold.markets/Krantz/krantz-mechanism-demonstration?r=S3JhbnR6

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