Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Eliezer Yudkowsky and Robin Hanson will watch this video before Trump gets inaugurated.
7
Ṁ1kṀ18k
resolved Jan 20
Resolved
NO

I'd really like to hear their (Eliezer and Robin) opinions on this video.

https://youtu.be/2Xxmguz0GEQ?si=Z7dzMuNjaztoPV4P

Or this:

https://x.com/AlchemyAmerican/status/1871383742498934880?t=6uIZP_tV_bSyyuhi7eytMw&s=19

One way of doing that is to wager that they won't watch it. You guys can bet against me which creates a monetary incentive for you to try to get them to comment on it. If you think you have influence in accomplishing that, bet that they will both make a comment claiming they have watched it (epistemic integrity is expected here).

If you watch it, find it valuable, and also want them to watch it (because their awareness of this issue is valuable to dissemination of this awareness to society) just bet that they won't. This helps demonstrate how my algorithm could be an economic solution to attention ranking and alignment (separate question).

This will resolve yes if they both comment on this prediction claiming at least that they've watched it.(or if no comment is made and someone can provide evidence that they spoke about it)

This will resolve no when Trump is sworn in and either party has failed to comment or provide any examples of them talking about it.

Personally, I'm going to be dumping a ton of Mana on 'no' in hopes that I lose and 'spend' that mana on prompting a public discussion about the issue between two great thinkers. Please either help me by buying 'no' or help get this in front of them and bet 'yes' to earn credit for your intellectual influence on the collective consciousness.

Thanks

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#TraderTotal profit
1Ṁ435
2Ṁ162
3Ṁ128
4Ṁ94
5Ṁ5
Sort by:

I watched the video, but only because I know Jesse Michels did some great interviews in the past, with Matthew Pines, for example. If I didn't know that, I would not watch it even though I'm interested in most of the topics covered (physics/UAP/consciousness), clickbait title and 2 hours would put me off. Though I can't say it was a total waste of my time, there are some interesting details, I wouldn't recommend it to someone who is less familiar with these topics. It's all over the place with few verifiable facts to update on. Also, Bob McGwier seems too gullible, I checked his twitter, he reposted several confirmed CGI UFO videos thinking they are genuine. The RF meter in his video is likely picking up the signal from the phone/camera.

If you want Eliezer and Robin to update their beliefs, you should probably choose something with more substance for your experiments.

You again. I thought it was gonna be a video of you explaining your "algorithm" but... You want them to watch a video called "CIA Contractor: "Obama Received An Alien Prophecy!""?? I don't think this going to counter your problem of, roughly, people not listening to you because your stuff pattern matches to crackpot/crank theorizing.