Resolves YES if at any point before the start of 2075 there will be less than 5% of worldwide (Earthwide) population, who consider themselves believing in some kind of god/spirit/entity/"predefined global plan, destiny and the purpose of life" and so on.
Pastafarianism and similar projects are not religion in the context of this market.
1,000
3.00@KongoLandwalker I don't expect there to be a population in 2075 that could be religious or irreligious either way. But it's hard to see what would convince atheists to start having 3 or more kids on average, which is what you'd need for atheism to stop shrinking.
@singer but atheism has also another way of growing numbers: children of religious parents not inheriting the belief.
@KongoLandwalker unfortunately it doesn't seem like it's working fast enough, at least for the purposes of this market.
@EmanuelRylke I know that some buddhists like to call it Not a religion, but it is a religion by all criteria.
They believe in spirits, they believe in rebirth, they believe in nirvana. The same kind of belief system, but with no "central commander" figure.
Pastafarianism and similar projects are not religion in the context of this market.
This is an interesting distinction to make. How does the market and traders in the market differentiate between a project and a religion? Is this exclusion based upon the belief and intentions of the founders or the followers, because I can envision senarios where the creation of a religion might have been a project or joke or commentary by the founders but then finds a legitimate following of believers. Think "Life of Brian" by Monty Python.
Is Satanism a project or a derivative religion? Would Satanism count towards this market's resolution?
Actually the more I think about the exclusion of Pastafarianism, the more I think it is ironic within the context of this question.
My impression of Pastafarianism is that it is an arbitrarily established belief system which people use in arguments with traditiinal belief system holders on the premise that it is just as legitimate as any other belief and if they don't like or accept or take Pastafarianism seriously then no one should have to take the traditional belief systems seriously.
By discounting Pastafarianism this market supposes that the traditional belief systems are not arbitrary, having some inherent rhyme reason and or value for existing besides someone deciding to make it exist, which would be a reason to hold a NO position in this market.
@ShitakiIntaki there is a difference between having a right to believe in pasta (and forming a lifestyle on it, and gaining all other rights believers usually get) and believing in pasta God. You make these actions equal.
Pastafarianism is a valid legal trick to equalize arbitrary legends and traditions in front of law. That does not equalize the actual beliefs of classical God and Pasta followers.
The market is not about legal status, but about an actual result of survey.
I understand the US is more religious than the world, but Pew Research estimates between 35% and 55% of the US will still be religious by 2070 depending on different switching trajectories. I highly doubt religion will drop below 5% worldwide by 2070, especially considering how "sticky" religion is, given that US "nones" will approach only a majority in the "best" case scenario by 2070.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2022/09/13/modeling-the-future-of-religion-in-america/
@ScottMayberry that's assuming no shakes happen. Internet for my area was such a shake. It looks like 90% of the new generation (who got access to the internet in childhood/teen ages) are atheists. Majority of elder people are religious though.