Tell in the comments, what events will likely happen according to your model, but are generally viewed as too specific and too unlikely.
The prediction has to about a big thing: sports, politics, economics, celebrities, etc. If the prediction in my opinion matches the concept "suspiciously specific" it will be added to this market and i will gift 50mana. All predictions have to be testable before 2031.
Related questions
By 2030, there will be a FIDE rule explicitly banning people with brain chips from rated chess tournaments
@Mich are you talking about chess rules explicitly saying that cyborgs are not allowed to play or "tournament organisation guidelines" stating that?
@KongoLandwalker Yeah technically electronic devices are banned, but the ban is on the device, not on the player. I was thinking of a statement like « anyone with a brain chip is forbidden to play in FIDE tournaments » but electronic devices already being banned makes my proposition kinda worthless
@KongoLandwalker I also made a more general one, hope you don't mind. Manifold doesn't even seem to believe in the general version!
@KongoLandwalker I guess you could say October of either 2024 or 2028, but that's less attractive to my eyes.
@HarrisonNathan have to be suspiciously specific, they are not if you have several guesses. More guesses you have, less that will fit this market.
@KongoLandwalker I'm reluctant to pick one, since my actual prediction is that it's one of those. If that's not acceptable, I'm picking neither.
@HarrisonNathan i am inclined towards " one 'order of magnitude' more than the median".
If you think something will happen with 90%, when half of people would evaluate <9%, it works for this market. If you give 10% to the event, which would be given 1% by the society, it also works.
But that is not strict.