An event with significant geopolitical ramifications occurs in the Swedish embassy in Belarus before 2031

@SleepyCactusWheel938 @mods resolves NO. Creator is deleted

By 2030, there will be a FIDE rule explicitly banning people with brain chips from rated chess tournaments

@Mich isn't it electronic device, so already banned?

@Mich are you talking about chess rules explicitly saying that cyborgs are not allowed to play or "tournament organisation guidelines" stating that?

@KongoLandwalker Yeah technically electronic devices are banned, but the ban is on the device, not on the player. I was thinking of a statement like « anyone with a brain chip is forbidden to play in FIDE tournaments » but electronic devices already being banned makes my proposition kinda worthless

@Mich "by 2030" is insufficiently specific! name the year!

Rory Stewart will become UK ambassador to Iran in 2030

@Fion are there many alternatives?

@Fion oh, he is a former politician, I get it

@Fion

@KongoLandwalker I also made a more general one, hope you don't mind. Manifold doesn't even seem to believe in the general version!

An Iranian general goes crazy and nukes Israel in September 2024.

@TimothyBandors

@KongoLandwalker

I thought for a moment this mrket was flagged:

PLA attempts a large scale ground invasion of the main island of Taiwan in October 2024.

@HarrisonNathan could you pick 1 please? I don't want 2 similar entries.

@KongoLandwalker You don't think they are both pretty specific?

@KongoLandwalker I guess you could say October of either 2024 or 2028, but that's less attractive to my eyes.

@HarrisonNathan have to be suspiciously specific, they are not if you have several guesses. More guesses you have, less that will fit this market.

@KongoLandwalker I won't add any more of that form.

@HarrisonNathan which did you pick?

@KongoLandwalker I'm reluctant to pick one, since my actual prediction is that it's one of those. If that's not acceptable, I'm picking neither.