Suspiciously specific predictions
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11%
Rory Stewart will become UK ambassador to Iran in 2030
4%
The next nuclear bomb test happens in August 2027
3%
PLA attempts a large scale ground invasion of the main island of Taiwan in October 2024 or in October 2028
Tell in the comments, what events will likely happen according to your model, but are generally viewed as too specific and too unlikely.
The prediction has to about a big thing: sports, politics, economics, celebrities, etc. If the prediction in my opinion matches the concept "suspiciously specific" it will be added to this market and i will gift 50mana. All predictions have to be testable before 2031.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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