Suspiciously specific predictions
22
2.0k
2030
11%
Rory Stewart will become UK ambassador to Iran in 2030
11%
The next nuclear bomb test happens in August 2027
6%
PLA attempts a large scale ground invasion of the main island of Taiwan in October 2024 or in October 2028
1.3%
Iran nukes Israel in September 2024

Tell in the comments, what events will likely happen according to your model, but are generally viewed as too specific and too unlikely.

The prediction has to about a big thing: sports, politics, economics, celebrities, etc. If the prediction in my opinion matches the concept "suspiciously specific" it will be added to this market and i will gift 50mana. All predictions have to be testable before 2031.

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By 2030, there will be a FIDE rule explicitly banning people with brain chips from rated chess tournaments

@Mich isn't it electronic device, so already banned?

@Mich are you talking about chess rules explicitly saying that cyborgs are not allowed to play or "tournament organisation guidelines" stating that?

@KongoLandwalker Yeah technically electronic devices are banned, but the ban is on the device, not on the player. I was thinking of a statement like « anyone with a brain chip is forbidden to play in FIDE tournaments » but electronic devices already being banned makes my proposition kinda worthless

@Mich "by 2030" is insufficiently specific! name the year!

Rory Stewart will become UK ambassador to Iran in 2030

@Fion are there many alternatives?

@Fion oh, he is a former politician, I get it

@KongoLandwalker I also made a more general one, hope you don't mind. Manifold doesn't even seem to believe in the general version!

An Iranian general goes crazy and nukes Israel in September 2024.

@KongoLandwalker

I thought for a moment this mrket was flagged:

PLA attempts a large scale ground invasion of the main island of Taiwan in October 2024.

@HarrisonNathan could you pick 1 please? I don't want 2 similar entries.

@KongoLandwalker You don't think they are both pretty specific?

@KongoLandwalker I guess you could say October of either 2024 or 2028, but that's less attractive to my eyes.

@HarrisonNathan have to be suspiciously specific, they are not if you have several guesses. More guesses you have, less that will fit this market.

@KongoLandwalker I won't add any more of that form.

@HarrisonNathan which did you pick?

@KongoLandwalker I'm reluctant to pick one, since my actual prediction is that it's one of those. If that's not acceptable, I'm picking neither.

PLA attempts a large scale ground invasion of the main island of Taiwan in October 2028.

bought Ṁ70 The next nuclear bom... NO

"Likely" means more than 50-50, or more than the average person thinks?

@HarrisonNathan i am inclined towards " one 'order of magnitude' more than the median".

If you think something will happen with 90%, when half of people would evaluate <9%, it works for this market. If you give 10% to the event, which would be given 1% by the society, it also works.

But that is not strict.