Who will get the most votes in the next vote for House Speaker?
38
แน€8.1k
resolved Oct 17
100%98.5%
Hakeem Jeffries
0.0%
Kevin McCarthy
0.0%
Donald Trump
0.1%
Steve Scalise
1.3%
Jim Jordan
0.1%Other

In the case of a tie, the winnings will be split equally between the winners. (if Manifold doesn't allow me to do that, winnings will go to whoever's last name is first alphabetically.

If there are any names you want me to add, suggest them in a comment.

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follow-up market

https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/who-will-be-the-next-speaker-of-the-0b49bf53ad12#GLa1Ip0txxydyrm4jhMK

Who will be the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives?
Kevin McCarthy has been removed as the Speaker of the US House of Representatives. Who will be the next Speaker? This market will resolve to the name of the next person to permanently take the role of the Speaker. An acting Speaker, a temporary Speaker or anyone who fills in so that a Speaker can be elected will not be counted (unless they go on to become the permanent speaker) If Kevin McCarthy is elected speaker again, the market will resolve to him rather than his future successor This is a free response market so please add anyone who you think should be in the conversation. Every additional response should be the name of one single person - please don't add something like "a black woman" or "there won't be a speaker this year" as the market will only resolve to the name of one single person! Update 13th October - because a couple of people have asked, I wanted to clarify what will happen if the House simply can't choose a Speaker. This market will resolve to the next Speaker of the House, no matter how long that takes. If there is no Speaker for the next year and a half, the market will resolve to the first Speaker after the 2024 election. Or the 2026 election. Patrick McHenry is currently the Speaker pro tempore. If he starts to carry out House business or is granted more of the powers of Speaker, this market will not resolve to him unless he formally becomes the Speaker of the House. While we're waiting, there are a lot of other markets on the Speaker race. You can see them all here but here are a few markets on what happens next and how long we're going to be waiting: @/SimonGrayson/when-will-the-first-house-vote-for @/zzlk/how-long-will-the-house-be-without @/KnowNothing/who-will-be-speaker-of-the-house-on

Related one on who will get the most Republican votes:

I would suggest adding Jim Jordan

@KnowNothing I bet on โ€œotherโ€ because there was no option for Jordan., and I wanted to bet that he would be next speaker. Now it appears to say that I bet 0 on Jim Jordan but I will win if the question resolves to Jordan . Am I interpreting this right?

@tg yes, when you bet on "other", Jordan wasn't included as an option, so he was included in the "other" for you and you automatically (and freely) got proportionate shares in him once he was added