How will the US presidential transfer of power happen?

1kṀ7614

resolved Jan 20

Resolved

YES

The transfer of power happens normally. Trump is sworn in without incident in Jan 20 2025, similar to 2016.

Resolved

A significant contingent of democrats claim the election was stolen/fraudulent (similar to R's "stop the steal" movement in 2016). (Example: vote tampering, foreign involvement, ...)

Resolved

At least one major mainstream newspaper op-ed or headline casts doubt on the legitimacy of the election results

Resolved

Trump is not sworn in due to some medical emergency.

Resolved

Significant riot or disruption occurs on or before inauguration day (Example: a democrats' version of the Jan 6 events, or upheaval at any state capitol in relation to the election).

Resolved

Trump resigns voluntarily before inauguration

Add your own answers!

Answers will be resolved according to my subjective judgment of reporting by at least one major mainstream news source. Market closes on inauguration day. I won't bet on this market.

Example: If a small number of Twitter users calls the election fraudulent but this isn't reported in a major newspaper, related questions resolve NO. It doesn't count as "a significant contingent of democrats believing the election fraudulent" unless reported by a news source, even if they're people I follow.
Example: if the NY Times reports that some academic professor uncovered evidence of vote tampering, related questions resolve YES.

Please don't add meme answers. I may resolve these as N/A at my discretion.

2024 US Presidential Election

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