Will more than 1000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
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28
Ṁ14k
resolved Oct 20
Resolved
YES

Counting all deaths caused by all fighting between the two sides during all of 2024.

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This up over 2000 now 1500 from ground fighting Israel has also lost over 30. @mods resolve this

Idf says over 1500 killed since the start of ground fighting.

https://x.com/chipropro/status/1847292873730818376?s=46&t=f-bNB2yoSVy4zrXsbxx_RA

Lebanon health ministry counts 2400 since start of conflict last October. Which is about 2000 in 2024

https://x.com/mophleb/status/1847196518169591989?s=46&t=f-bNB2yoSVy4zrXsbxx_RA

@mods isnt this one resolvable now please?

558 since yesterday and 1700+ injured

https://x.com/globalspotlite/status/1838527096475521496?s=46&t=f-bNB2yoSVy4zrXsbxx_RA

This question should be resolved as yes

now the report is 356 killed today from the air strikes. This should pretty much be 1000 in 2024.

bought Ṁ200 YES

New count is 274+ killed today. 300 air strikes.

https://elpais-com.translate.goog/internacional/2024-09-23/israel-urge-a-la-salida-inmediata-de-civiles-de-libano-en-zonas-de-hezbola-ante-la-inminencia-de-los-bombardeos.html?_x_tr_sl=es&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

An unprecedented wave of Israeli bombings in Lebanon has killed at least 274 people in just a few hours on Monday, including at least 21 children, 39 women and two health workers, and wounded more than 1,000, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health.

Just continued air campaign this week will get to 1000 and we might already be there with about 300 in 2023 and 600-1600 in 2024 and now add 274 and 20+ over the weekend. 900-1900 estimate for 2024.

Also, just 5-10% of the 4000+ or so critically injured or seriously injured not surviving after getting to overwhelmed hospitals would see 1000+ in weeks even if war stopped.

182 killed in air strike in lebanon today, 727 wounded

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/9/23/israel-hezbollah-conflict-live-new-air-strikes-target-lebanon

claimed leaked document that 879 died from pager and radio attacks.

https://www.defensemirror.com/news/37727/879_People_Dead_in_Lebanon_Pager_Explosions_Targeting_Hezbollah_

At least 32+dozens more killed from pagers

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-820982

Why is a high pager casualty count plausible. anyone carrying a pager alone could bleed out in minutes with a hand blown off or the groin or pocket explosion injuries. It takes time to find people who were alone in buildings without communications.

the Friday bombing in Beirut had a new total of 45 killed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6rzvyz9p6o

"Since October, more than 560 people have been reported killed according to Lebanon's health ministry, the vast majority of them Hezbollah fighters, while 26 civilians and 23 soldiers have been killed in Israel, authorities report."

I'm not sure about the count for just this year, but it's seems like the intensity of the conflict would have to increase substantially for this to resolve YES.

If we need an exact count, this seems to be the news feed for Lebanon's health ministry: https://www.moph.gov.lb/en/Media

I found no numbers. But this hints at a reduction in threat risk:

“The U.S. and four of its European allies hope to announce in the next few weeks a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah to diffuse tensions and restore calm to the Israel-Lebanon border, according to two Israeli officials and a source briefed on the issue.” Feb 6, 2024

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/06/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-biden-gaza

predictedYES

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