Will more than 1000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
Basic
19
1.3k
Dec 31
59%
chance

Counting all deaths caused by all fighting between the two sides during all of 2024.

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I found no numbers. But this hints at a reduction in threat risk:

“The U.S. and four of its European allies hope to announce in the next few weeks a series of commitments made by Israel and Hezbollah to diffuse tensions and restore calm to the Israel-Lebanon border, according to two Israeli officials and a source briefed on the issue.” Feb 6, 2024

https://www.axios.com/2024/02/06/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-biden-gaza

predicts YES

What source will you use?