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Will we ever know whether COVID-19 came from a lab?

54% chance

Will the next pandemic originate in a laboratory?

16% chance

Did HIV come from a laboratory?

10% chance

(When) will we know if COVID came from a laboratory?

2038

Did/will H5N1 come from a laboratory?

7% chance

If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?

Where did COVID-19 come from

Did Lyme disease come from a laboratory?

10% chance

Did monkeypox come from a lab?

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When will we know that COVID-19 came from a laboratory? [Unlinked Multiple Choice Derivative of Existing Market]

12 Comments

60 Holders

208 Trades

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I don't understand the resolution of the market: we don't know

@DarkTiberion79

@PuckMinder Find it absurd: there's a high probability that the virus comes from a lab and there's no hypothesis which is currently more likely.

@DarkTiberion79 This market wasn't resolved based on my opinion. More people on Manifold voted they don't think it came from a Lab than those that do. So this market resolved No. Did you not read the description? The only thing I put in it was that this market is resolve to a poll, then linked the poll.

@PuckMinder So all we do is betting on the results of a poll (:/)

@DarkTiberion79 Yeah, resolving a market to polls are a common thing. There is already a market that will be open for years that may or may not get resolved by Issac King about this.