Evidence of insider trading related to Trump's April 9 tariff pause announcement emerges by May 10, 2025
Evidence of insider trading related to Trump's April 9 tariff pause announcement emerges by May 10, 2025
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100Ṁ1860May 10
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On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs, leading to a significant stock market surge. Allegations have arisen regarding potential insider trading linked to this announcement. This market resolves to 'Yes' if credible evidence of insider trading related to this event is publicly reported by May 10, 2025. Resolution sources include reputable news outlets and official statements.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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