Will a US Service Member be killed in the Middle East by 2024?
Jan 1

Resolves “Yes” if at least one US service member is killed in the Middle East between today (Nov 21) and the end of the year. The death must be attributed to enemy action.

  • It does not include friendly fire or accidents.

  • It does not include civilian contractors.

  • If the service member is on a ship off the coast that still counts as Yes.

  • A couple weeks ago a civilian contractor died of a heart attack during an attack. If this happens to a service member I’ll resolve it to Yes.

I think this is a leading indicator for whether we head towards a regional conflict or tensions settle down.

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