will kimmy forget to dump her YES stake in the “will this market reach 2%” market
6
1kṀ314
Oct 26
9%
Kimmy is able to dump some of her 100M YES stake to push the final market down to below 2% (YES wins, kimmy dealt the final blow)
37%
Kimmy’s 100M stake was never enough to push the final market down to below 2% in the end (NO wins, but kimmy kept track)
10%
Kimmy watched on October 26 as another brave soul pushed the market lower than 2%
25%
Kimmy forgets to monitor the market on Oct 26 and loses her 100M stake (NO wins, kimmy forgot)
10%
Kimmy forgets to monitor the market on Oct 26 but gets lucky with a YES win
9%
Other

I bought a 100M YES stake in this market:

https://manifold.markets/256/will-this-market-reach-2?r=S0pXXzAxMjk0

I intend to wait until after noon Eastern time on Oct 26, and then sell enough of my stake to push for a YES win. The market closes at 8pm my time.

I am also very forgetful. If you can’t profit off that market, you may be able to profit off my forgetfulness!

Shenanigans encouraged. If anyone wants to call me to remind me on Sunday for example, I’m happy to disclose my personal phone number via DM.

(Note: There are several markets of this type currently going around)

  • Update 2025-10-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that their entire net worth won't be able to execute the planned strategy described in the original market description (selling enough YES stake to push for a YES win in the linked market).

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My entire net worth won’t be able to do this on that market. I’m a dumbass.

I’ll keep this alive so you can laugh at me if you like, but option 1 doesn’t look too likely

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