Will an Iranian nuclear facility be bombed by 2025?
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resolved Oct 30
Resolved
YES
Masoud Pezeshkian wins Iranian presidential election

Resolves YES if any of (the U.S. government, Economist, WSJ, NYT, or FT) reports there was a bombing at an Iranian nuclear facility (any location on this list, or a site the article refers to as a nuclear facility) before Jan 1 2025 (Tehran local time).

If the news source reports an explosion at the site with an unknown cause it is assumed to be a bombing after two weeks, unless the reporting news source identifies it as an accident/non-antagonistic cause before then.

The criteria for "at" and "explosion" are fairly permissive. Some examples:

  • A bomb detonating within a parking lot used primarily by the site, even if it's distant from the site, resolves YES.

  • An explosive attack on site personnel while they're not onsite does not resolve this question.

  • An aerial bombing, crashing aircraft, or grenade attack on the grounds of the site (even if it's far from the specific locations that handle nuclear material) resolves YES.

  • A cyber attack, non-thermal mechanical failure, or small arms fire do not resolve this question.

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The Wall Street Journal confirmed the bombing of Parchin:

One of Israel’s hits was at the sprawling Parchin military site, where Iran once worked on nuclear weapons capabilities, according to the U.N. atomic agency. Four buildings were hit there, including three solid-propellant facilities for missiles, said Fabian Hinz, research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies focused on Iran’s missile program.

Parchin is on the wikipedia list of Nuclear Facilities in Iran.

So the resolution criteria for this market have been met, and this resolves YES.

PSA:

https://xcancel.com/elintnews/status/1850217968656900361

The question description is written very specifically, and Parchin is on the wikipedia list. I haven't seen this confirmed by the listed news sources yet though.

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