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MANIFOLD
Trump creates and appoints a shadow Fed chair?
10
Ṁ600Ṁ375
resolved Mar 12
Resolved
NO

  • Update 2026-03-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is strongly inclined to resolve NO following Kevin Warsh's official nomination, as Warsh has not been widely referred to as a "shadow chair" in headlines or public discourse. The creator is open to arguments before making a final decision.

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Isn't this a little premature? It's quite possible that Warsh's nomination gets rejected or tabled, and Trump then does in fact create a shadow chair.

@bens Not quite sure what you mean. The shadow chair would have to have been created well in advance of the time when the candidate would in the normal course of things have been set up for confirmation. My understanding is that doing it now is not unusually early. I can be persuaded otherwise.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen hmmm, I meant more under scenarios where the senate refuses to confirm Powell's successor, leaving Powell as chair for the indefinite future, and then Warsh is treated as a shadow chair due to his nomination. But I guess that's not the intention of the question?

@traders Okay, Warsh is officially nominated. What remains is deciding whether his appointment constitutes appointing a shadow chair. I will hear arguments. Very strongly inclined to resolve NO, given that Warsh hasn't been making headlines or referred to widely as "shadow chair".

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