Resolution Criteria

Members of the Fed's board of governors, including the chair, are nominated by the president but must be approved by the Senate. This market resolves YES if Warsh receives Senate confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair. Resolution will be determined by official Senate voting records and Federal Reserve announcements. The market includes multiple dates reflecting potential confirmation timelines, with each date resolving YES if confirmation occurs by that date, or NO if it does not.

Background

On January 30, 2026, President Trump announced he had officially nominated Warsh as the next chairman of the Federal Reserve to succeed Powell. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh would succeed Jerome Powell, whose tenure as chair ends in May. From February 2006 until March 2011, he served as a governor on the Fed's board, nominated to the role by then-President George W. Bush.

Considerations

Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., a member of the Senate Banking Committee, reaffirmed that he would not back Warsh's confirmation until a recently opened Justice Department probe of Powell was resolved. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., acknowledged to NBC News that without support from Tillis, Warsh could "probably not" win confirmation. Since the Senate Banking Committee's composition currently includes 13 Republicans and 11 Democrats, Tillis has the ability to block the committee from voting to advance Warsh's nomination to a full Senate confirmation vote.

This description was generated by AI.