The byelection is the result of the death of SNP MSP Christina McKelvie
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Post Mortem. Not sure if I got the closing time just right. Will try to make a calendar note in the future to follow vote counts myself and adjust so I allow trading at least till exit polls. That said it seems I got the notification to resolve around midnight GMT so maybe the polls had closed by then and there was an opportunity to trade post exit poll...
@JussiVilleHeiskanen for UK elections I close at close of polls, there's usually very little in the way of new information that comes out until the minutes before the result is announced and the time is always very variable.
https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2025/06/who-will-win-the-hamilton-by-election
This forecast has labour likely to come second. Interesting that they're a distant third in the market. Not necessarily wrong, because they're probably lower variance than reform, but still a bit surprising to me that before my latest trades, Labour was just on 0.3%.
@Fion I don't think it's that surprising. Only 7 traders on the market, in a constituency that hasn't been polled in a while, for a regional parliament... the figures aren't likely to be that right. And for the Runcorn & Helsby by-election with more data, people were much more bullish on Reform than the end result justified.
@Noit I'm curious: clearly you're expecting an SNP win, but who do you think is more likely to win out of Labour and Reform?
@Fion I'm primarily betting based on the Britain Predicts data you've shared, and with the lack of other info I'd go with what they've said about it being Labour, but I rather suspect it will be a close run for second place. UKIP never had a strong foothold in Scotland, so I'm taking strong Reform support north of the border with a pinch of salt until it's borne out in a few actual votes.