Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on two events:

1. Xi Jinping Securing a Fourth Term: Xi Jinping is currently serving his third term as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which began in 2022. If he is reappointed for a fourth term at the 21st National Congress of the CCP in 2027, this condition will be met.

2. China Invading Taiwan: An invasion is defined as the People's Liberation Army (PLA) initiating a large-scale military operation involving ground forces landing on Taiwanese territory with the intent to seize control, before 2033 (which would be roughly the start of a fifth term for Xi). This does not include limited military exercises, airspace violations, or naval blockades. If China launches a failed invasion, it would count. The condition here would be the embarkation of troops onto ships to cross the Strait.

The market will resolve to one of the following outcomes:

• Xi secures fourth term, China invades Taiwan

• Xi secures fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

• Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China invades Taiwan

• Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan

If neither event occurs by December 31, 2033, the market will resolve to "Xi doesn't secure fourth term, China doesn't invade Taiwan."

China invading Taiwan before the 2027 National Congress would still count for this question - it is not asking what happens after.

Background

Xi Jinping has been the General Secretary of the CCP since 2012. In 2018, constitutional term limits were removed, allowing him to potentially serve beyond the traditional two terms. The 21st National Congress in 2027 will be pivotal in determining his leadership status.

Regarding Taiwan, tensions have escalated in recent years. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and has not ruled out the use of force for reunification. Military activities, including large-scale exercises around Taiwan, have increased, raising concerns about potential conflict. However, experts debate China's current capability and willingness to conduct a full-scale invasion.

Considerations

• Military Capability: While the PLA has modernized significantly, executing an amphibious invasion of Taiwan presents substantial logistical and operational challenges. Analysts suggest that China may not yet possess the full capability to successfully invade Taiwan. (cfr.org)

• International Response: An invasion would likely provoke significant international backlash, including potential military intervention by the United States and its allies, as well as severe economic sanctions.

• Political Dynamics: Xi's decision to pursue a fourth term and any action toward Taiwan will be influenced by domestic political considerations, economic conditions, and the international geopolitical environment.

Traders should monitor developments in CCP leadership decisions, PLA military activities, and international diplomatic relations to inform their positions in this market.