Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, through the Department of State or the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), formally notifies Congress of a proposed arms sale to Taiwan with a total announced value exceeding $10 billion USD between May 16, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.

Formal notification is defined as the point at which the DSCA issues an official press release or transmittal notice to Congress regarding the sale, typically found at https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales. If the cumulative value of multiple smaller notifications during this period exceeds $10 billion, the market will resolve to "No" unless a single notification package, defined as notices issued on the same day, is explicitly valued at over $10 billion.

Background

The United States maintains a "one China" policy but is committed under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character. Arms sales are a frequent point of diplomatic friction between the U.S. and the People's Republic of China. Historically, U.S. arms packages to Taiwan typically range from hundreds of millions to a few billion dollars; a single package exceeding $10 billion would represent a significantly large and atypical transaction in the context of recent bilateral security cooperation.

This description was generated by AI.