Nominally: if a Taikonaut plants a flag pole in the lunar regolith à la Armstrong vs if a PRC flag is raised over the Presidential Office Building in Taipei.

This market will mostly resolve to the spirit of itself, ie a Chinese crewed lunar landing vs a successful invasion of Taiwan. However, it will also specifically resolve to the letter of the criteria above if a protestor or infiltrator manages to raise the Five Star Red Banner on a Presidential Office Building flagpole.

Note that displaying PRC flags is not illegal in Taiwan (or at least any such law is not enforced), so general flying of that flag absolutely does not count.