Will the PRC flag fly on the Moon before it flies on Taiwan?
29
1kṀ18952035
80%
chance
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Nominally: if a Taikonaut plants a flag pole in the lunar regolith à la Armstrong vs if a PRC flag is raised over the Presidential Office Building in Taipei.
This market will mostly resolve to the spirit of itself, ie a Chinese crewed lunar landing vs a successful invasion of Taiwan. However, it will also specifically resolve to the letter of the criteria above if a protestor or infiltrator manages to raise the Five Star Red Banner on a Presidential Office Building flagpole.
Note that displaying PRC flags is not illegal in Taiwan (or at least any such law is not enforced), so general flying of that flag absolutely does not count.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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