Resolution criteria

The CMC is currently comprised of four members: Xi Jinping as Chairman; two Vice Chairmen; and one regular member. The market resolves YES if any new member, vice chairman or chairman is added before 2027. Resolution will be based on official announcements from the CCP Central Committee or the Ministry of National Defense of the People's Republic of China.

Background

The size and scope of the Central Military Commission has reduced dramatically since 2004. In October 2017 the CMC was cut from 10 military leaders (plus Xi), down to six, and has remained at seven members (including Xi) since the 20th Party Congress in October 2022. The 20th CMC would most likely serve until the PLA completes its centenary in 2027.

Considerations

Recent developments have created significant personnel instability within the CMC. Zhang Youxia, the senior vice chairman, is under investigation, and He Weidong was expelled and replaced with Zhang Shengmin. Liu Zhenli, another commission member, is also under investigation.