Taiwan has thirteen diplomatic allies remaining.
1,000
1.00Sadly, just happened with Nauru. Funny though that places like Nauru and Tuvalu have an UN seat and Taiwan no.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-loses-first-ally-post-election-nauru-goes-over-china-2024-01-15/
@BrunoParga not really -
I mean states that have diplomatic relations with the Republic of China
I'm not sure how many of them have used the phrase 'one true China' recently enough for your question to actually be precisely true
@JoshuaWilkes recognizing the government entails it being the One True China, as there is global consensus that there is only one China. First and foremost, Taiwan itself doesn't want it to be otherwise.
But yeah, diplomatic relations is a more precise definition. Thank you!
@BrunoParga just put of interest, what do you understand Taiwan to positively want when you say Taiwan doesn't want that?
@JoshuaWilkes there is an independence movement, which wants to give up the claim on the mainland and accept that they control only the islands. But as I understand it they're a minority, compared to a few who want to reunite with the Beijing regime and a nationalist majority who wants to maintain the claim on the mainland.
Apologies if I am about to come across as patronising or lecturing, I would welcome feedback on how I handle this kind of conversation.
What you said above is mostly not true at all.
There's a tiny majority who want to unify with Beijing now (under what would be Beijing's terms)
There's a minority that want to maintain Taiwan as 'China', but don't want anything to do with the PRC/CCP as it currently exists.
There's a small minority that want Taiwan to formally declare 'independence' now (by which they essentially mean change the name of the state and the constitution)
The majority support something called the status quo, but it's hard to parcel out what this actually is because it has different meanings to different people. Broadly speaking the KMT claim that the status quo is One China, with two governments, and the DPP (or at least Tsai and Lai) claim that the status quo is that Taiwan is already a separate state which they might refer to as ROC on Taiwan. The KMT say that ROC maintains its claims on the 'mainland', the DPP say it doesn't (and largely reject the use of the word mainland).
When you ask a voter whether they support the status quo vs unification or independence, not only do you have to deal with all the above, you also need to recognise that if Taiwan formally declared a new state China would probably declare war, and so the answer they give doesn't necessarily (necessarily doesn't) reveal their actual preference or 'want'.
But if you talk to Taiwanese people*, or refer to the polls I will share below, or do a bit of reading about the demographics of Taiwanese society today (especially what 'nationalist' means in that context) and the history of Taiwanese governance since 1945 (or back to Koxinga), you'll almost certainly come to see or agree that most Taiwanese are not Chinese nationalists, even many of this who vote for KMT (although it shouldn't be neglected that that is what they are voting for)
*Especially this!
@JoshuaWilkes this is the definitive poll on Taiwanese (vs Chinese) identity:
https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7800&id=6961
@JoshuaWilkes and this is the definitive poll on Taiwanese preferences with regards to status quo/independence/unification:
https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963
@JoshuaWilkes thank you for your comment, it didn't come across as patronizing or anything (but, to be fair, I think I have very thick conversational skin).
I can buy what you said pretty much wholesale. But I don't see it as that different from what I said - only way more detailed.
What I mean is: I don't think the Taiwanese government, especially its Foreign Ministry, wants any allies that will recognize it as a sovereign state distinct from the one ruled from Beijing. Like you said, they want the status quo, and the status quo is the One China policy in principle, with a pragmatic, tacit acknowledgement from each side that the other exists so as to allow the peaceful side of cross-Strait relations.
@BrunoParga finally, just notice that hidden in my first, overly long, answer is an implicit statement that both Tsai and Lai currently hold a Two Chinas position (although I doubt either of them have ever said that explicitly).
It's also my understanding (not universally acknowledged by scholars 😅) that Lee Tung-hui formally abandoned ROC(Taiwan)'s One China policy in the '90s, in favour of allowing states that recognise ROC to also open relations with PRC, something that Beijing obviously doesn't reciprocate.
Certainly I am convinced (again perhaps without on-the-record statements*) that the current government would allow this if it Beijing didn't make it impossible.
*Could look at recent case of Fiji perhaps?
(This was written after your comment, it looks like it's replying but it's not)
@JoshuaWilkes hmm, yes, that's an interesting idea - that Taiwan wouldn't mind its recognizers also recognizing Beijing. I'm updating in that direction. Thank you for teaching me!
proceeds to resolve the market for "will I learn something new this year"
@BrunoParga thanks for thick skin! I am not so well-endowed unfortunately 😃
I would still take two exceptions to your attempt at a middle ground.
The first is that the DPP certainly don't recognise anything you would describe as a One China policy. The KMT certainly do. As I've written above I'm sure that Tsai's (and Lai's) government would allow states to recognise Beijing as sovereignly distinct from it. I am less sure about a KMT government because I've had fewer conversations with their decision maker, but if someone made a market about that I'd still buy YES above 50%. I think it would be too much in the interest of ROC now not to do so if they could.
Secondly, I still want to point out that whatever positions a KMT or DPP MOFA publicly holds, this doesn't mean there is a nationalist majority amongst Taiwanese people (for all the reasons I outlined above)