Resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taiwan (Republic of China) holds legislative elections before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
Background:
Taiwan conducts legislative elections every four years to elect members of the Legislative Yuan. The most recent elections were held on January 13, 2024, with the current term running from February 1, 2024, to January 31, 2028. (en.wikipedia.org)
The next scheduled legislative elections are expected to occur in January 2028. (en.wikipedia.org)
Considerations:
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6085263
https://thediplomat.com/2025/05/could-taiwan-hold-a-new-round-of-elections/
Taiwan is in considerable domestic political tumult. Calling early elections for the Legislative Yuan, Taiwan's parliament, would be one way out of this, but it would effectively need the consent of both of the major parties.
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